Weekly update for 6/25/10

I’m back from my one week vacation from Florida and it looks like I picked a good week to not look at the market or news. Not to say that I didn’t check the market while on the road, because I would be lying if I said I didn’t. What I learned is that I did not like being away from my Internet connection while the market was running. Does that mean it is in my blood? Afraid so I guess.

The S&P 500 appears to have given me a head fake this week, if you refer back to last weeks closing and last weeks post. The S&P closing for this week fell back through the 50 week MA which is not what we wanted to see, but it did not give a clear signal on where we are heading. The weekly trading bar straddled the 50 week ma so we are safe at the moment. The other bad news is that the RSI fell below 50, so we are back to watching next weeks move to see if we reverse our trading method and pull out the C-fund. The closing price is still above our first major support point and as long as it stays that way, caution is all I can recommend at this point.

The Small Cap closed down from the previous week and when you look at the S&P, I pretty  much expected that it would follow suit. The Small Cap reversed 3.4% from it’s previous week close and the S&P reversed 3.4%, so it appears it was a total market pullback or profit taking opportunity. The technical's are all still positive but if this coming week repeats the last, this index will be in trouble also.

The European index or EFA had a nice recovery last week but this week she went south once again. There is nothing positive to say about this index and if your invested long in the I-fund or the European stocks, you have more guts than me. All flags are flying saying stay away. We are below the 50 week ma, below the 50 RSI, and below the first major support point.

All markets at this moment are in a basic funk and only those with a lot of guts or patients should be trading here. I think we are just going to churn until something sparks this market in one direction or the other. I can always bail in my retirement account if I get the right signals, so for now I will ride this churning tide until it goes one way or the other.

TSP 40% – C, 40% – S, 20% - G