Well after all the Tennis, Football, and motorcycle riding I did the last few days, oh and racquetball, I’m finally getting to my update.
If you are in the C, S, and I-fund, then the last few days have been very nice to you. I will still be standing on the outside looking in until I’m convinced that the market will proceed in an uptrend. I’m just not convinced that we will not bounce off 1130’ish and sink back to 1040. What is going to drive us through 1130? What positive news? What is going to be the stimulus? I’m clueless, but I just wish it would go one way or the other. So let’s look at the charts.
Starting with the weekly on the SPY(S&P500), you will see that the wedge is still in effect because we did not clear it and then confirm it by staying above it. We did however cross and clean the 50 week ma. The RSI is above 50, so in itself that is a signal to get back into the market. Before we jump in, let’s discuss the daily chart.
This week I added the volume to show why I might be concerned. I also put a 200 day moving average line, because so many so called experts say that this is an important event. Yes we crossed the 200 day moving average this week, but we also crossed it July 26th, and also June 16th, and look what happen shortly after that. Boom, a big decline. Here is something else to look at, volume. June 8-16, shrinking volume and rising prices, then big decline. July 26-August 9,shrinking volume and rising prices, then big decline. Now, September 1-10, rising prices on declining volume and we have now approached the top of the battle box. What is it going to do? Are you a betting man/woman? Do you feel lucky?
Personally I want to watch and see what happens. So if your in, be careful, and if your out, you might want to watch for a bit more. For another point of view, click the link below for different look at the same material.
Intraday Triangle Pattern Forecasts SPY Breakout
TSP distribution: G-fund 100%
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