Did I say last week that this week was going to be scary slant interesting? Well it sure was. Monday we opened the week with a bang, up just over 2% and what looked like an apparent breakout. I think I even made a flash post Monday that it looked as if we were finally peeking at a breakout. Then Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday we closed lower everyday giving up all of Mondays gains plus some. Every Select Sector ETF fell below the 5 day ma on the 10 minute charts and looked like Friday was going to be very ugly. Then we got a few somewhat not so bad reports, not good, but not worse than expected and the market gapped up on the open. The market ended up 2% for the day and up 2% for the week. So you can see, everything for the week happen on one day, Friday!! Crazy stuff.
What we did accomplish this week is to finally close above the battle ground box, 4 days out of 5. I know that the FED is pumping money into the market to keep it rolling and I just read that that will continue at through mid-November. So where will the market go? Who the hell knows and all I can say there comes a time where you just have to ride the wave until it crashes on shore then step off. So all signs say step in, so step in if you feel brave, but maybe you should do it a little at a time. Don’t throw the whole ball of wax into the c-fund, s-fund, or the I-fund, but just ease a little in at a time protecting yourself from a total reversal.
On the weekly chart to the left, you will see that we are in the process of breaking through the 113.20 level, finally. Even though we are not all the way through it, we are far enough that we are approaching the next level of 115 and after that, we should zoom. Just remember all of what I said above the charts and be smart. All the signs are there to get back in, but you have to be smart.
The daily chart has a lot of clutter but it is clutter that you need to consume. First we are finally cracking through the battle box. Second that light blue trend is scary steep and there is no way that can continue without some type of pull back eventually. That is just what the market does and you have to accept this part. I think the most important part of the chart is the volume. It is finally going up, ever so slightly, as prices rise. I would like to see more conviction, but you have to know that most big buyers and retail buyers like ourselves are sitting on the sidelines waiting see what happens.
Conclusion: If the market opens Monday up, even a little, and holds through noon, I will likely start easing back into the C-fund.
If I find time later today, I will try to do update on the Small Cap and European fund.
TSP distribution: G-fund 100%
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