So what did you think of that? Did this weeks volatility make you nervous? We all have different tolerance for the Stock Market and depending on how old you are and or how much money you have invested, will determine your tolerance. This week, no matter what the news was, the charts were saying it was time to pullout and play it more conservative until the current uptrend is re-confirmed or it is cancelled . This was a short week because of Presidents day here in the States, so we only had 4 trading days. 3 of those 4 trading days were very negative and the last one did some repair work, but the damage was deep. So that brings us to the weekly numbers, so here you are.
So as you can see above, if it were not for the 1% move in the markets Friday, the damage for the week would have approached almost 3%. That is a pretty dramatic move and just goes to show when you have a long powerful uptrend and then add a little unsettling news, things can change in a heart beat. Year to date we are still doing very well and still out pacing the conservative g-fund and f-fund and monthly move to date is fantastic. I did bailout of the stock market this week and went 100% f-fund and I will wait to see if we return to our uptrend. Below is my yearly performance.
So what is next for the market? Where is it going to go? Up? Down? Wouldn’t it be great to forecast the future but then where is the fun in that? I have no clue which direction the market is going travel but like I have often said, I will read those charts and follow what I see.
The S&P 500 doesn’t look all that bad because the main uptrend is still intact and Friday we had a up day which produced a green. Yea! The RSI also climbed back above 50 and is rising. The MACD on the other hand is still a little ill and we just need a little confirmation that it is reversing back to positive. What we also need is the other indexes telling the same story at the same time. So next we will look at the Small Cap.
The small cap is an exact match for the S&P 500 so if we are looking for confirmation, it is here. The only problem with this particular confirmation is that this chart needs direction. So like the S&P, it needs time to tells us something. I see no need to show the Nasdaq or the Dow because these are also in total agreement with the S&P and we will not learn anything new from them. So in conclusion, we need time in order to make a decision. If you feel lucky or like gambling, jump in, but for me it is time to wait and see. I do want to show you one more thing and that is the F-fund.
The F-fund at this moment in time is showing strength and I believe that it is the highest paying safety. As the markets shift, this could reverse course because people pull money from safety an invest it in the higher paying returns of the stock market when an uptrend is established. So for now, I will wait for the indexes to give me guidance and stay put in the F-fund until I have a reason move.
TSP Distribution: F-fund – 100%
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