Current observation

So after Monday’s little pop to add-on to last Thursday’s and Friday’s up recovery, Tuesday was down a little bit and basically traded sideways all day. To draw you a picture on volume, last Thursdays volume was lighter than Wednesday, Friday was lighter than Thursday, Monday was lighter than Friday, and today was lighter than Monday, and that is a little concerning to me. As far as green days in a row, today was or is the entry day because we have three in row, but the things I see lacking is RSI strength and MACD. So technically by my own rules, we could enter the C,S, and I and feel safe, but my gut and overall experience on what I have seen, says to wait for more of a legitimate signal.

The market or indexes have done some repair work but in my opinion they are not showing convicting signs that they want this uptrend to continue. Nor are they out right screaming that a down turn is emanate. I just believe the market at this point is waiting for direction from something. Something like what made it move Monday and that was AT&T, but one move does not make an entire market. Oil is still going up and reached $105 a barrel today which I believe is close to a recent high and if this continues, it will have a negative impact on stocks. We still do not know how the Japan crisis is going to affect their economy or their business. We still do not have a clear picture on Libya. So there is a lot of uncertainty to consider.

The bond fund for the last four trading days slipped down a little bit or basically traded sideways. So with the up days on stocks and down days on bonds and my distribution I basically treaded water the last few days. I’m ok with this as long as there is no significant loss in my TSP.

Below is the current daily of the S&P 500 and what I think needs to happen before I feel comfortable jumping back fully into the market.