A tough week and tough month so far this March. Some key support points were broken and some were broken and then shown to be important because buyers came back in to bring prices back up to those levels. I also didn’t listen to my own advice and paid the price. Seems that every time I travel an away from computers to monitor closely, stuff happens. I hate that that sounds like I’m to attached, but I think it is just a coincidence. The International fund,(I-fund), took the brunt of this weeks pounding, followed by the Small Cap and then last the C-fund.
The S&P500 is showing signs of support and strength forming at $1294 and even though we have the two red flags, I think we should see if we hold or break. If we fire a red Monday and close below $1294, then I will bail and not take anymore chances. I did that with the I-fund and it has not worked out. The current uptrend is broken and I will have to wait until the market officially takes up a new direction. It could just be slowing and the uptrend will continue and then there is the very real possibility that a downturn is beginning. As each day passes, we are getting signs of a down turn. The MACD looks really really bad. RSI is shaky and has no direction. Comparing the S&P to other indexes and all are saying things might be turning. The second chart above shows a zoomed view of the S&P showing we have held three times and where price is and was the last week. The difference in the the two charts is one is a trend indicator and the second shows the actual price movements.
This is end of part 1 and I will finish the rest of my post tonight at work.
Before I move on, it is very, very important to reiterate the fact that both times that the S$P 500 approached $1294.00 buyers came back in and pushed prices back up. The more times that is tested, the more important it becomes and more likely it will be broken. It needs to bounce off this point an move upwards.
All three index above, Small Cap, Nasdaq, and the Dow 30 are in total agreement with the S&P 500 and if Monday is a down red flag day we should bail to F or G. Each chart above shows where major support is and what needs to be held. There is really nothing that stands out from the S&P that I feel that needs to be discussed.
Above you will find the International Fund or the $DWCPF as it is tracked on the stock market. This is in total collapse and you should not be in it. I should have pulled out last Wednesday and Thursday at the latest, but I didn’t and now I’m paying the price. I expect that with all the news in Japan that this fund will more than likely get pounded again Monday. I will bail Monday, but only if that index is down. That is a personal decision. The I-fund has had 6 red flags in a row, so there is no excuse for being in this fund. The chart on the right is the actual price movement and it only confirms that I should be out of this fund.
Last but least is the Bond fund. If I bail from the I-fund I will likely go F-fund because of the trend reversal once again. We now have a trend break out and a higher pivot low as well as 3 greens in a row. So it looks like during the stress of stocks, money is once again running to bonds.
TSP Distribution: C-fund – 35%, S-fund - 35%, I-fund 30%
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