This week we ended the losses of the past two weeks and made some nice moves to get those losses back. As you can see the weekly column is impressive but for the month we are still down. We still have 4 trading days in the month of March, so with a few good days, would could end up with a positive month. The International fund will have a hard time recovering to save the month, specially since it was down last Friday. What I want to focus this update on is the S&P500 with the weekly, daily, and 10 minute view to show you what is going on in each view. All indexes are in agreement with the S&P, so no need to show those. The exception is the AGG or F-fund which was attempting to make a breakout, but instead broke down. So let’s get to those charts.
I like using the daily chart to make all my final decisions and that would be the first chart to the left. The last 7 trading days have been very good in recouping most of the losses, but there is still work to do. We need to bust through that red line of resistance to make this recovery more valid. Once that is done, you can pretty much delete that blue down trend line. The RSI and MACD are looking good but the MACD need to get back above the zero line. Also notice that price is above all moving averages which is always a good thing.
Our second chart is the weekly and what we are looking for is that price is always above the 30 week moving average. You will make a lot less moves using this method but you will also get in and out late. It is not perfect, but nothing is in the stock market. The second thing I like to look at on this chart is the advance decline line at the bottom of the chart. Basic read here is that the more advancing stocks you have at the end of the day should be great than the losers for the day. If this is true, then the line should be green and going up. It looks good right now.
Last the 10 minute chart and the only I use this for is to get a heads up on what the very short market is doing. We always watch price close here and we always want it on top of the 5 and 10 day moving average. Crossover is normally a good indication that on the daily chart something is happening up or down. Right now things are perfect and looking good.
The last thing I want to show you is the break down of the bond fund or F. We had a nice little up trend in progress and the last few days it broke down below the trend line. RSI fell below 50 and MACD did a negative crossover. I marked the pivot lows and what we need price to do is to reverse before it hits that first higher pivot low. If this happens, a new up trend can be shown. Basically what we have happening right now means we stay away for this fund.
Conclusion: If you can get in the C and the S, feel free because everything is pointing to more upward moves. I fund, to me looks like a what an see for a few more days. The F, no way at this time. The G is always a go.
TSP Distribution: C-fund – 20%, S-fund - 20%, G-fund 60% (made the change Friday)
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