Old Dix TSP Blog: Weekly update, March 4th, 2011

A week ago when I wrote about the weekly update, it was pretty devastating. This week was not a lot better because it was roller coaster ride all week. As a matter of fact, let me show you a 1 hour chart that runs from Monday to Friday and look at that ride. Now look at that second day, that is the day I got back into the stock market and by the end of the day I was thinking uh oh! By Thursday I was ok, and then Friday gave most of that back. So it was a wild ride again this week. So what is the current status of the market and were should we be?

Let’s start this off saying this, if your are in the C-fund currently, stay in. If you are on the outside looking in, then I might just wait for a more confirming signal. We have the two green flags in a row and Monday would normally be the day that I would be looking to get back in, but with the RSI looking shaky and my main concern the MACD, it might just be a time to wait an see what happens. I drew some boxes around price and MACD so you could see exactly what I’m talking about. Price movement is starting to look a lot like last November and if it jumps out again, it is all good. Now notice when price did finally start to move with two greens, that the RSI and MACD did the cross and off we went. The confirming information is that Small Cap, Nasdaq, and the International Fund are all saying the same exact thing. So I say pause, let’s see what happens next week. If your in, stay in but know it could fall and fall quickly. If your out, unless you’re a gambler, you might just want to stand on the sidelines and wait to see if this uptrend is going to continue.

I now have to close on the F-fund. This is our bond fund and is tracked with this 3 letter ID on the stock market, AGG. I bailed out the stock market a week ago and into the F-fund because of the 9 day uptrend and breakout. Then I pulled my money back out and into the stock market. The F-fund has collapsed once again and I would avoid this fund until further notice. It is much safer at the moment to just put your money in the G-fund, than the F. The F fund is making lower high’s which I marked on the chart and is just not a good investment today. What it is a sign of is that money is being pulled from bonds and put into Stocks or Gold or other commodities.