The beginning of April and the first weeks things were looking pretty grim at one point. The last two weeks of April completely turned that around and now we should be glad we didn’t bail to soon. I have heard people say on TV and in person that Summer time is the time to pull your monies and not invest or be invested. I know last Summer was ugly, but how good is our memory and is it just something we manufacture in our heads? So, I went back in time and looked at what the numbers are in black an white, not hear say, and here are the details. What did the stocks do between April 30th – September 30th from 2000 to 2010? Well 5 out of 11 years were down and 6 out of 11 were up. In the first 5 years, 3 out of 5 were down. In the last 5 years, which is what we really need to see, 3 out of 5 were up. Conclusion? Basically a crap shoot, so that puts us back to trend reading and try to make the best moves we can on what we see. There is no silver bullet, but doing nothing an thinking it will all be ok is not the answer either. See my numbers below.
So what is next for the C-fund or S&P 500? Wouldn’t that be nice know in advance? Basically what we have is everything is pointing up and we are in an area where the next line of resistance is $1440. There is a large vacuum that could take place and pull us to that level to test it. I doubt seriously that we will just march straight there without some pullbacks and drama. Our primary trend in purple is still intact and pointing north. So for now, there is nothing to do but to stay invested and ride the trend.
The Small cap has been killing it and it has broken into new high territory where there is no resistance to stop it. So everyday that it goes up is a new high. All moving averages are pointing up, price is above all three moving averages and the primary trend is intact and up. All we can do is ride and see what the future holds.
The EFA or International fund is acting an doing the same as the S&P and Small Cap and had the best and most volatile month. It takes a lot nerve to ride this particular index but if you did, you did get rewarded at the end of the line. The next line of resistance is 24% away and if it runs to test that, that be a large gain. I follow trends and trends are saying invest here, so I have no reason to say no. I’m personally going to stay where I’m at for the moment.
TSP Distribution: C-fund – 50%, S-fund - 50%
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