Weekly review TSP, April 1, 2011

The last week of March did not disappoint and helped repair all the damage of the first part of March. We are almost back to the highs of 2011 and the way I see it, it is going to go through those soon. There are a lot of reason for it not to, higher fuel cost, war in Libya, the endless bad news from Japan, but what matters is price and it keeps going up. So until we have another trend reversal, we should be riding this one up. So like I called March 24th, if you are not already back into the C & S, or the most aggressive L2050, you might be missing a nice ride. I could not get back in fully until April 1st, so as of Friday I change my allotment from 20% each C & S, to 50% each. So that means I have no money in the G.

Take a good look at the S&P500 chart above and see if there is anything negative that you can find. The RSI is rising and above 50. The MACD is rising, green, blue on top of yellow, and now all trends are above zero. The Dark blue down trend has been broken and will be deleted off the chart sometime this week. Now look at price, it is above all moving averages and all averages are pointing uphill. Last thing to note is the resistance that we have now run into. We would like to see next week to plow above this and stay above it. We do not want to be banging up against this line to long because that would indicate weakness or buyers are losing conviction. Once we break $1332.20, we will be faced with another line of resistance at $1344.07. The second line of resistance will likely be the most difficult line to break. That is the high of 2011 and the highest we have been since June 16, 2008. If I expect to see a pause or reversal, I expect $1344.07 is going to be that level.

Above is the Small Cap, Dow 30, Nasdaq, and International fund and you will see they all agree with the S&P500, so there will be nothing new to say. What is important though is that we have all in agreement.

Conclusion, you might be a bit late to the party but we all have to make our own decisions based on what we see. A lot will make their decisions based on what they hear. What you see happens now, and what you hear has already happened a long time ago.

TSP Distribution: C-fund – 50%, S-fund - 50%