I keep looking at the Weekly, Daily, and 30 minute chart on the S&P 500 and I come away with the feeling that this market could go either way on a moments notice. We are currently trending sideways with no conviction. You see above we closed just .64% down for the week, so it was basically nothing. The only thing I can throw positive here is the Weekly overall trend is still in an uptrend. The Daily closed right on the Resistance line and we really need to break above that in the days ahead. Volume is average and not very convincing. So if this was a stock, I would put it in my stock list to watch and wait to buy or short depending on the direction it takes.
The Small Cap was down about the same as the S&P this week but Friday was actually a good day for the small caps. It closed above the Resistance line of $706.61 and price close above all moving averages. Price also created a nice pivot low off of Thursday price bar and that normally means higher prices for the immediate future. So even though the Small Cap was down for the week, I like how it ended the week.
The Nasqaq, which is mostly tech stocks and not really involved in the TSP, just had a bad week. It was only down .57% but it closed way below resistance and just about all it’s charts are all sideways. It will be interesting to see what happens to the Nasdaq next week.
The Dow 30 did as the Small cap in that it created a nice pivot low off of Thursday trading bar. This is normally a good sign price are going to run. The other thing of note was that volume was up here and it is always a great sign sign to see rising prices with higher volume. So this index is the second good sign for the market.
The last chart I will show is Bonds or F-fund. When investors get scared of stocks, they will sometimes run to bonds for safety. This week, four days, bond prices were up. I still believe I would wait to see if price will close above $106.54 before I believe that bonds are in play. This could be an early warning that stock prices are going to tank, but until that trend shows it’s face I will not guess.
So in conclusion, I will make no changes in my TSP setup Monday and I will have to wait on more information from the market before I can tell which way all these trends are going to go. I wish I could give you more to lean on, but sometimes things just go sideways and you have to wait for a breakout in one direction or the other.
TSP Distribution: C-fund – 50%, S-fund - 50%
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