Ok I’m back in town and I’m not happy about it, but we can’t be on vacation forever! I imagine it will take me a few days to get back in the mode of thinking stocks fulltime, but by the looks of things, I would have been sitting on the sidelines the majority of the time.
Did you pull out May 23rd or before? Did you think by May 31 you were God and made the right call? When the primary trend was under attack the close of May 23rd, it was a warning flag that things were about to get ugly. Then it did a head fake and plunged to the point were it put you back to the beginning of this year.
Looking at the S&P500 as of the close of today it appears to be accelerating it’s free fall because now it has broken below the down trend channel. All of the moving averages are are going down and there will have to many days of recovery to make me want to dive back in. The Nasdaq and the Dow are all doing the same and all look bad for the moment. Even the International fund is under attack but seems that it may have found a bottom around $59, but we need time to determine this. There is no reason at all to be in the C, S, and I at this moment in time unless you are bottom fishing. 2008 proved that to be a bad move, so good luck with that and I wish you the best.
The G fund is really the only place to be at the moment for total safety. You might want to think about investing a little in bonds by choosing the F fund, but that is also your digression. Total safety is all G. When bonds get rolling, stocks normally tank, so watch the bonds closely here. we are approaching the entry prices for the C and S from January 1 and if bonds stall and the S&P 500 start to recover, this would make a nice entry. We need time before you can make that call. To jump in today or Monday is nothing but a guess or gamble. So be careful and be safe, ride the G and maybe a little mix of F.
TSP Distribution: G-fund – 80%, F-fund - 20%
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