The numbers above are also the closing numbers for the month of July. So this makes 2 months in a row that the markets have closed down and I’m pretty sure that July is the worst for the year. A lot of Julys’ poor results stemmed directly from what is going on with the Debt crisis’s in Washington DC. If you believe that there will be no resolution then this is just a tip of the iceberg and more declines are coming. If you believe that there will be a resolution, then the markets should recover very quickly in the near future.
The chart to the left is the one minute chart for this past Friday and I so wanted to bail, but it continued to rise into the decision point of 11:30am. It did the same basic thing on Thursday and I knew that I should have bailed on Thursday, but this is where my gut comes in and it is not always right. If you read below you will see on Thursday post, I said I would understand anyone that bailed at this point and my staying in was a gamble. The rest of the day Friday did exactly as I thought it would and it slowly declined the rest of the day.
The short and very brief uptrend that we had has now been replaced by a down trend. It is in a very early stage and really needs one more lower pivot high to confirm it. $1294 support has been broken by a couple of points, so everything and I mean everything is saying bailout. The Dow 30 and the NASDAQ dailies all agree. But the one interesting point with this particular market is the fact of that one big news item, Debt Ceiling. No one can call this so you just have to go with your gut. What side do lean to? Either way, I do not believe it can collapse fast enough that I cannot bail 
and save face, so I will wait some more. Here is the last and only positive that I have to show you and that is the weekly chart for the S&P500. It is still holding above the long term uptrend line. It is barely holding on and next week looks to be a very key week on the chart.
The two charts above are the Small Cap and the International Fund and they both are depressing. The Small Cap totally collapsed this week and there is no reason at this point to be invested in it. The International Fund did not make the breakout this week, so there is still no reason to be invested here. If the US Government solves the debt ceiling issue this week, the S-fund will likely be the best fund to be invested in. Total gamble, if you bite on this.
Conclusion: There is no reason to be invested in any fund but the G-fund at this point. If you are still in, then at this point it is worth the wait to see what happens. If there is no solution by Tuesday then we should all bail.
TSP Distribution: C-fund – 35%, S-fund – 35%, G-fund – 30%
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