Wow, what a week the market had this week. I hope that most of you all got the opportunity to take part in the run but if you didn’t just remember this saying and never worry about missing another move like this. “I would rather wish I would have gotten in, is much better that wishing I would have gotten out. Wishing you would have gotten out can cost you real money. Wishing you would have gotten in, is money you never had in the first place. So with that you can always get in on a rising trend.
We now have 2 pivot lows that we are building on and what need for the market to do at this point is pull back a bit and create that 2nd pivot high that is already guaranteed and create another higher pivot low so our new up trend line will be validated. We need to fall back and start climbing again before price reaches $1263. What we perfect is if it fell to $1295 area at support and then reversed. Nothing is life or in the markets is perfect so all the above is what we would like to happen, not what is going to happen. Looking at the current chart with moving averages crossing over and all turning up, it is possible that we could see the markets continue to climb making up all lost ground since May 2, 2011. I really do expect sometime next week for some profit taking and churning at the $1344 level where the first resistance line is drawn. Expect some pull back after a week like last week and if it does, wait for a reverse or that higher pivot low and then put more funds into the market.
Taking a look at the 30 minute chart you will see that there are 3 cross overs marked. When you get those cross overs it just confirms what you are already seeing in price. When they all turn up, it also helps to re-confirm your current trend. The 30 minute chart is can be very risky to use as a entry point because of the time frame. The daily chart is really where we need to stay, but it is nice to see what might be brewing when you peek at the fast moving 30 minute. Just like the daily, finding support and bouncing up from the $1261 was good.
Un-like the daily chart where around May 20-23rd the primary up trend was broken, the weekly chart tested the up trend 3 weeks in a row but did not break. The other nice and important feature is that the advance decline line at the bottom of the chart has broken through the down trend an may be reversing. This is a double bonus. Everything in the weekly chart is screaming hold the line and stay invested in the market. I do not trade and make decisions based solely on the weekly because it is to slow, but it nice to see and read a confirmation trend to help support your decision to get in and stay in the market.
Conclusion: If your in, stay in. If your out waiting to get in, you might want to wait for a pull back to get in but there is no guarantees ever in the market so we cannot make that call for you. Look at all 3 charts above and make your own decision based on what you see and run with it. Also know that I do not listen to or read the news in order to keep my mind clear on reading what I see. Believe me, if something bad happens, it will show on the charts and I will have the same reaction time you do. I will be looking for a pull back in the market in order to go full in when it happens.
TSP Distribution: C-fund – 35%, S-fund – 35%, G-fund – 30%
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