TSP Weekly Update, August 26, 2010

4 weeks of declines finally ended this week in another up and down week that is very hard to read from a technical stand point. I would have liked to have had those weekly numbers deposited in my account, but the risk to me was way to high. Speaking of the charts, let’s jump right to the S&P 500.

The S&P 500 on Tuesday made a higher pivot low which is a good sign that we may be seeing a trend reversal and maybe a slow climb back up hill. The moving averages still are saying it might be to early to jump in and after the last few weeks of watching the markets they may be right. The only other positive is that the 10 day moving average has for last two days has turned up. I also want to talk a little bit about the 30 minute chart because on 8/8/2011 it started building a really nice base @ $1120. The more times the buyers jump in at $1120 and support that line, the more likely the market is going to reverse to the positive. This is also about the same time last year that the S&P started the remarkable climb on September 3rd. Summer time is coming to an end, so maybe some buyers will come back into the market. You cannot bank on those last two statements, but it is good information to know.

Here is something else we want to consider, GOLD ! When the stock market took it sudden fall in August, where did all that money go? Bonds and Gold. This week Gold finally burped a little bit. Friday Gold bounced up pretty strong and created a pivot low. Gold needs to climb back through $1850 in order to keep this uptrend running. It to me is looking extremely over bought and when the selling starts, it is going to be bloody and all that money has to go somewhere. Bonds is also where money was going and this week bonds were starting to slow or show a little weakness. Tuesday, Bonds fell below the 5 day moving average on the 30 minute chart and on the daily she drifted lower, but nothing worrisome yet. So what I will be watching next week is some kind of sign that Gold and Bonds continue to fall or weaken and stocks start climbing.

Conclusion: With the long base that has been built since August 8th, Gold & Bonds starting to sputter, S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow 30 all showing signs of life, come Monday I might put my toe back into the water. There are so many reasons in the News telling us not to, but the charts are starting to disagree with the news. Sunday night and Monday, I will be watching the market action over seas and here in the US to see if things still appear to moving up. Second reason is we might just have a free move here. We could go all in Monday, bail on Wednesday and still have our two moves in September.

 

TSP Distribution: F-fund – 50%, G-fund – 50%