TSP Weekly numbers 5/25/2012

Finally a week where all the index numbers are not RED. Not surprising the International Index was once again red but just barely. Surprisingly, Bonds had a bad week and therefore the reason I bailout and went straight up 100% G. So even though I’m on vacation, I still have time at night to look at charts and form an opinion of what I see in the markets. So let’s jump right into it.

The first to be aware of is price on the S&P 500 is still below the 50 day moving average and I would never want to be in a stock that is below the 50, so why would I invest my retirement account? Well if I really thought that it had made a bottom and was turning up, I might be convinced. The other thing to point out is that price did bounce at the 38.2% retracement from the high and even though it is not exact science, it is a sign that maybe that $1289.00 might hold. So really on this chart, there no reason to even consider jumping in with this chart.

Then we need to look at the percentage of stocks in the S&P 100 that are below their 150 day moving average. When less than 65% of stocks are above the 150, this is a major sign that market conditions are negative and you should not be buying stocks in general. It is a market where you should be extremely careful. More than 51% of the stocks are currently below that level, plus all indicators on this chart our negative, so another reason to stay out.

 

On this daily chart of the S&P 500 there are at least two signs that price might be turning up but what that said, there are still signals that are saying just the opposite. So would I but in or put my retirement monies in? Nope, there is just not enough here for me to jump.

 

The last chart that I will show on the S&P 500 is the 10 minute chart and I’m not really using it to make a decision but watching it to see what trends are setting up now. What is about to break, churn, or fall apart. Right now the immediate down trend appears to be stalled which is good. The other thing to note is that price is stuck in a range. 1328 to 1292 seems to be the range and as far as my personal stock trading, I’ll be waiting to see a close above or below this level before I go long on the market or short it.

So in conclusion to me it is just to early to even consider risking any money in this market whether it be retirement or personal money. Right now I’m basically 100% cash across the board. I own no stocks and I’m shorting no stocks which means, I’m officially on the fence. The Small Cap is in the same exact boat as the S&P. The International fund is so risky you’re insane if you invest there. I would like to hear a good reason to invest in anything but G today or anytime in the next few days. So there you have it. Next week will be fun to watch, but I really do not expect anything spectacular to happen.

TSP Distribution:  G-fund 100%