TSP Weekly numbers, 6/22/12

 

I do a lot of preaching about having a plan and make sure that you have a reason to get back into a scary market so I try to live what I preach. Last Friday, a week ago, the S&P 500 to me had finally given the signal to enter and I was waiting for follow through Monday to enter. I pulled the trigger and put 50% into the C-fund. I also made it a point to build a CBL or bailout line just in case things collapsed, I could make a rational decision to bail. Thursday, I got hammered to the effect of 2.57% down in one day and that left a mark. I had sat out for almost 2 months waiting for this turn and bam, I got the hammer. I licked my wounds and went back to charts to see where I stood and the bailout line is still intact. That doesn’t make me feel better because I do not want to bailout. I want the markets to follow through with the signal given. As you open the chart to the left you will see that there is a risk that we will go either way. There is no conviction in the chart that we will go up or go down. If I had to pick just one direction I would choose down because of the collapse Thursday and the fact that price closed two days in a row below the 50 day ma. The only bright point that I can find is that if you zoom in with the one hour chart  you can see that we still are making higher highs and higher lows, so we have a uptrend. This is about the only thing that is positive. You can click that little chart to the right if you want to see the uptrend with no notes.

If you take a look at the over all market as a whole sometimes you can get a clue what is happening or what is about to happen. Right now we stuck in the middle and this market can go either way. The majority of S&P 100 stocks are above their 150 day ma, but Thursday was once again killer even to this chart. Friday helped to flatten it back out, but not much to fix the damage. So reading this chart right no only confirms what the S&P 500 is telling, we have no immediate direction and we will have to wait to see what happens next week.

The Small Cap index is in the same exact position as the S&P 500, even with the 1 hour chart. The only positive you can take away from this is that both indexes agree with each other. Which way? Only time will tell.

 

 

Then we have the International Index. There is nothing here to like and if I had more than 10% in this index, I would have already bailed. This stock closed below the 50 day ma and the CBL bailout line so Monday I will likely retreat. The only thing that keeps me in is a major rally in this index and I do not see this happening.

 

Conclusion: If your out, stay out. If you in the C and S you still can hang on a se e what happens. If your in the I-fund, well, see the paragraph above. Maybe by Tuesday we will know a direction, but as of right now it is unknown.

TSP Distribution:  C-fund 50%, S-fund 40%, I-fund 10%