TSP Distribution: S-fund 40%, C-fund 40%, I-fund 20%
The S&P 500 chart is almost picture perfect to the point where it is almost scary perfect. I heard a few people at work this week bragging how the bailed out Thursday and found me, to make sure that I knew that they got out and they were calling the top. Basically those words meant nothing to me, but what did stick in my mind was this. What did they see or hear that made them bail out. So the curious little bug that I am, turned to my charts, monthly, weekly, and daily looking for a clue. Nothing!!! I see nothing!!! We just broke out of a Bull Flag about 10 to 11 days ago to the upside and that makes that theory true to the book reading. Price is well above the 50 day moving average and the 50 is rising. Solid green uptrend line that is really just the second trend, is still working. Even my first warning sign, the CBL is safely intact. So what the Hell did they see or hear??? I remember now, they were bragging about calling the top. Whoops, they missed again because Friday we still went up.
Ok, now re-read the above paragraph and then come back to this. Stop listening to the news. Stop listening to your buddy whose buddy, buddy has the inside scoop. Learn how to read a chart and wait for a reason to bailout and do it. No one can call tops and the ones that just happen to sell or get out that day, just got lucky. I’ve seen it one time in 3 years and I’ll even give you the guys name, Dan Redding. But he’ll even tell you he got lucky and he’s never been able to repeat it. If you ever hear someone bragging about calling tops, ask them to repeat the performance and make them show you the moves in black an white on a profit and loss statement. If they refuse, walk. Look my methods will never get you out at the top and we never get in at the bottom, but they will protect your overall profit in most cases. Nothing is bullet proof, but at least we have a plan and we are not making decisions without logic. With that said, Logic says, “Stay in.”
The Small Cap daily above is one pretty sight and I have nothing to add but it is the number one money maker of the year so far. Stay in the S fund also.
Last week and most of this week the International fund appeared to slowing down. I really thought that just maybe that this might be the first index to start showing signs that a pullback was imminent. Well as of the close Friday, we are back on tract and the primary uptrend is back on. This is also a pretty chart.
I also really thought that Bonds had likely hit bottom and would soon reverse and give us a buy signal, but as of Friday, no. Still moving sideways to down and looks shaky. 50 day moving averages are also moving down and price is below the 50’s, so nothing new here. Stay out of bonds if you can.
Conclusion: You read my rant above and if you bailed out of the markets above because you were scared, or gut wrenched, or were just satisfied with your gains for the year, I’m good with that. If you bailed because you’re calling a top, good luck with that. Now tell me this, if price continues to go up another 3, 4, 5%, when are you going to get back in? It is really, really hard to jump in on a fast moving uptrend. So it is just so much better to stay in and ride and when the chart say’s bail, BAIL.
Once again, I stay put with no change. Oh yeah, if everything is peachy with the daily charts, everything is super peachy with the weekly peeps.
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