Mid-week 3/27/13 Bonds and International indexes.

First things first. The Small Cap and S&P 500 have made a few moves up and down this week but without a conclusion. We are still churning sideways inside the Bull Flag on each chart. So if your in, stay in, and if your out, stay out until something happens in either direction. Below, left to right, S&P and then Small Cap.

The International index this morning was looking very grim and it had sell written all over it. Throughout the day all markets recovered the majority of their early opening losses and climbed back uphill to close mostly even. I say mostly because not every index and every stock closed positive. The International closed .5% down and even though it barely hung onto the 50 day moving average, it looks grim. Price closed below the uptrend yesterday and confirmed lower today. Price closed below my CBL line today, but needs to be confirmed tomorrow. Price traded below the green 50 day moving average, the important one, and then closed above it. So the closing price today left us in limbo. If your out of the International Index or I-fund, stay out. If your in, use your best judgment, but warnings are flying all over the place. By the skin of our teeth, this index is just barley hanging on and if your stay in, price is currently saying ok, but damn it is going to be very interesting tomorrow and the rest of the week.

I hate using my gut to make decisions so I’m glad I’m out of this index. If your looking for me to call an exit here, I’m going to say it is close enough, but technically speaking, you have one maybe two days to hold on. If I was in, tomorrow if the International Index, (EFA) was down at 11:30am, I would bailout to safety. See the chart below.

Ok, now Bonds or F-fund. Since December 3rd, I was saying stay out because the trend turned down and there was no reward for risk. February 25-28th, bonds did a little head fake and almost gave us a buy signal but it never followed through. Yesterday price closed above the downtrend line and the 50 day moving average. This was a start but needed confirming. Today price closed up again so that signal was confirmed. What also happened today is price closed above my CBL line. So do we move all into Bonds? Not quite yet. Tomorrow we need price to rise and or stay above the current closing price of $110.73 to confirm the last buy signal. It that happens by 11:30am tomorrow, 3/28/13, you have yourself a buy signal. See chart below.

So tomorrow if price hangs onto to $110.73 or higher by 11:30am, I will move a little of my monies into Bonds. I’m thinking 10% for me, but each person has to have their own plan. I will leave my remaining money in the C an S until I know direction. I will attempt to post my move and price direction by 11:30am, but no promises because I work dayshift at a real job tomorrow.