Part 2 of Weekly update TSP 3/16/13

Bonds to me still look weak and there just isn’t enough risk to reward ratio to bother investing here. There is a green box on the chart and that shows that for the week we were up, but because of the damage the week prior, no gain for the month. The down trend line was readjusted to the new lower pivot high. What we see is price is still firmly below the trend and 50 day moving average. The 50 day is still in free fall mode on top of that. What is pretty cool right now on the chart is that it would be possible to break the 50 day, trend line, and CBL with one move because those points all merge at one point. Well pretty close. I’m still out of bonds and have no interest in being invested here today.

 

The International index gave an official buy confirmation Friday, so if your invested already here, well done you. If your in the L-funds, this bodes well for your investment also. I noted in the 3/8/13 update that this index had 4 really nice days and that we needed to watch it day by day to see if we break out of the $59.59 area, then pullback and then rise again in order to re-enter. Well damn, it did just that like it was written in a play book. Don’t take that the wrong way, I didn’t make the call or prediction, I said that is what we wanted to see. Big difference. You will also notice on the chart that the Intermediate uptrend was saved and is still intact. So if we are up or sideways Monday, feel free to jump into the International index. Me? I will consider the option the rest of the weekend and if I do make the move, no more than 20% will be sacrificed. That will put me right back to where my mix was at the beginning of 2013.

Right to left, S&P500 and Small Cap. I really do not have much to say about either one of these charts, but I will say this about the S&P. Because $1561 closing high is so important and the all time trading high of $1576 is so important to this index, I expect to see a little churn here until the powers that be, decide who is going to win the battle. Bulls or Bears? Who is going to prevail?

Hope you all have a great weekend and I will post Monday prior to 11:30am to let you know whether I did make a move into the International Index.