TSP Distribution: S-fund 50%, C-fund 50%
Hello April and I can see that your showers are raining on our parade. This was a very rough week on the market specially the Small Cap index that gave back 2.57% of YTD gains. The S&P only gave up 1% and the International just a little less. What did come into play this week was Bonds. A .77% gain for the week for the slow moving bonds. Did you take the buy signal that I called last week? I didn’t take it for myself? I thought about rolling 20% of my account into bonds, but I just wasn’t ready to go conservative. This is not the first time I didn’t take my own advice and it will not be the last. The last time I did it was late October and early November 2012 and that cost me almost 2% of my gains.
So where did we end up for the week on our charts? Are we going to have to bail from the C and S funds? How about bonds, they still look good? Well? Let’s get started.
After all the drama this week in my charts and personal stocks, the S&P 500 hung in there and close the week fairly well. We ended up almost dead center the bull flag and no damage done. Price is well above the intermediate uptrend and 50 day ma. Except for the fact that we are going sideways, everything here looks good.
This is the index where all the damage was done and the one that is most concerning. I just knew Friday morning with a 1% drop opening, that come Monday I would be bailing out of the S-fund. Not so fast! Price came marching back uphill all day long and saved the bailout move. Did that solve our problems? Not by a long shot. The S-fund, small cap, are going to be a day to day watch with my finger resting on the ejection button until price goes back uphill. $797 looks to be the number that we must defend. If we close below that number any day next week, the following day will likely be the reason to bail.
Just a side not on all charts. I will from now on make sure that the last entry and exit are always on the charts. You can see above on the Small Cap that I have been riding this index up for a long time. So a little give back is not going to hurt me.
There is still nothing for me to like about the International Index and since I bailed out in February, I see no re-entry price. It looked like last Thursday we might be attempting to breakout the bull flag, but Friday that got squashed. The only bright note here is the primary uptrend is still intact and that means that there is a good chance that very soon that uptrend will re-start. International is a watch for a re-entry.
Here is the bright spot on all our indexes in the TSP. I called the re-entry last Friday and didn’t take it myself because I was not ready to go conservative. If you guys took it, you put almost a whole percentage point in your pock this week. So well done you. If the current pull back in the stock market continues next week, you can expect bonds to continue to rise. This will be the first place I retreat to if the Small Cap falls apart next week. Be warned though, if stock reverse next week and start to go up, bonds will likely collapse.
Conclusion: Ok after all the drama this week, you were probably expecting a lot of chatter here but there really isn’t anything to do yet. So the week stunk, but not bad enough to cause a pull out. My system is built to keep me in and or out as long as possible so I ‘m not making moves every week. It takes time to develop and that is what I want. So, I will continue to hold my current setup of 50% each C and S until I get an official exit sign.
Have a great weekend,
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