One of my favorite singers growing up passed away today at 81 years old. He lead a very colorful life that many would not approve of, but I’m not here to judge anyone. The one thing about the man was he could sing. Song in this video is a classic and some say the perfect country song ever written. As sad as it is, his voice does something to the song to make it great and make it his. I heard it sung a million times and by several different artist and none have come close. Rest in peace George Jones and thanks for the music.
TSP Distribution: F-fund 50%, C-fund 50%
We almost got everything back we lost the week prior. I think it was about 6 points short. The S&P 500 looks good here and there is only one thing that concerns me. The timing of the pullback Friday is just a little concerning because that is where we got rejected with price last time. It would have been better to go through that last high and then pullback because that shows conviction. Next week will be interesting to watch.
The Small Cap a week ago fired the sell signal that appears to be a head fake. From the day it fired, price did a steady climb back uphill. Today, Friday, I was going to get back in if price held above $820 even though I was going to hate the entry. To me this kind of re-entry is risky because price is attempting to re-establish trend. By 11:30am price did not hold $820 so I decided to stand down until Monday. At the close price created a lower pivot high by .20 cents, the slimiest of margins. I would like to see another lower closing day Monday to confirm that lower pivot high because it was so close. Like the S&P it concerns me a little that the timing of this most recent reversal was right at the price level that we were rejected last. Everything else about this chart is good. Next week, it is just going to be interesting to watch.
The International index did finish the week up and had an up day today. I maybe should have gotten back into this index but by 11:30am it also appeared to be down and heading down, so I stood down. Even though that last price bar on the chart looks like a pivot high, it is not. Everything here still looks good and it is still a hold if you’re in. I didn’t take the last buy signal and maybe I should have.
The Bonds did do something today that is very significant, it took out the 200 day moving average. Price just keeps crawling higher and higher ever so slowly, so staying invested here is a good thing. Price sometimes gives the appearance of moving fast but if you look at percentages, you will see that is not true. The bonds do not move much faster than the G, but they do move. Everything here looks perfect.
Conclusion: As bad as last week was, this week reversed almost the entire loss. If you got in at the right time, you made a little. I think this is another point in time where it is just better to sit and watch to see what happens. If your out, it is high risk to get in without price taking out the high’s. Right now we are sitting right under the high’s and we bounced lower with the S&P and Small Cap. If you’re in the International, well done and I semi regret not entering. I think I will watch closely next week and if the uptrend continues, I will put a little into the International index. Bonds, I would at least put a little here for protection unless you’re a big risk taker and just have to be in stocks. Bonds just keep creeping higher and higher. That does make me think that some big money manager thinks that stocks are getting ready to tank if they are slowly slipping into bonds bit by bit. Time will tell.
Have a great weekend.
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