I pointed out last week that there was no way that the sharp rise short term trend could maintain that angle and this week it failed. The weekly pullback finally broke the 4 week run of gains. Problem is the pullback was so small that it doesn’t mean anything. It is possible that if prices continue to fall next week that we will get a warning fired very quickly because the CBL is very tight at $1670.44. The second warning is much deeper and currently sits at $1643.00. Nothing is indicating that we will get much of a pullback here and it is very possible we will get another higher pivot low. That will give those sitting out a chance to enter.
This little chart to the left is the S&P 500 one minute chart from Friday. I do not normally show these charts but I have a reason. That first hour and half Friday we had a big gap down and it looked like it was going to be a big down day. But from 11am till close, price came marching back and marched hard all the way into the close. This is why I do not think we are going to see much of a pullback. Buyer’s are still in the market.
Small Cap chart above is in good shape and is also in a healthy looking pullback.
The International index daily chart above has been a mess since the high was hit at $66.14. I mentioned last week that a entry signal could have been taken at the highlighted circle on the chart, but since the chart looked to messy for me, I was standing down. I really would like to see another higher pivot low established before I risk any monies here. This week price poked up through my original CBL but never closed above it. Price was rejected. What needs to happen now is for price to reverse back uphill and we will have a higher pivot low. I would like to see it happen prior to falling below the Red CBL that I drew for information only, but it must happen prior to price falling though $57.
Bonds are still untouchable unless you are bottom fishing. Not a big fan of bottom fishing but like I have already said, at least you have a legitimate reason here. You have a double bottom which could be support. This week price itself broke through the CBL making the second buy indicator active. Two days later it failed and fell back through. Price is still below the 50 day moving average, so there is just nothing to like here at all. Below is the weekly chart and monthly and they both say long term stay out.
Not a lot new this week compared to last week. But I think from what I see in the S&P, Small Cap, NASDAQ, and the Russell 300 index, we are going to keep moving up. I looked a little further back to get an indication of what August might bring us and over the last 10 years, 7 ups and 3 downs. So I think you have to think that near term, unless there is some bad news, we continue to climb. I will be looking to enter the International again if I get that signal, but for now I will remain 50-50, C and S.
Learn to babysit your retirement account when it is small so it is easy when you get old. So much easier to make a decision when you only have $10,000, try it when it is over $500,000 and you can see moves of $10,000 a day, good and bad.
Learn now.
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