Sunday, July 21, 2013

Time to look at some charts.

I just want to take a moment to look at the S&P500, Small Cap, International, and Bonds so you can see the levels that I see.

sp-daily

The last 4 weeks has seen the S&P 500 rise 100 points and or 6.25% without a red week. That really short term angle of attack cannot be maintained so you can expect it to slow or rollover very soon. Someone should do some research and see what the last 5 August have done and that might give us a heads up. The Intermediate uptrend is very safe and is currently sitting in the $1587 area. There is nothing to do here but wait for gains or drama. Odds are drama will come soon.

$dwcpf

The Small Cap is also up 63 points and or 7.63% in four weeks and is also in the same exact shape as the S&P500. Nothing to do here but watch the gains and wait for the drama. Making new high’s almost daily.

efa

You can read the notes on the chart and yes, I could have called a buy signal on 7/11. There was no follow through 7/12 and then the entry could have been made 7/15. So if you want into the International index, I-fund, take it. I still do not see a pattern of higher high’s and higher low’s. I also think the Green CBL is a better point to enter. The International also has not been running concurrent with the S&P500 and Small Cap. It has only been up the last 3 weeks and it is up 2.83 points and or 4.89%. That is a pretty sharp rise in three weeks that we missed. But since 7/15, the International is only up .08%. Not much and not worth the risk.

agg

Bonds to me are still untouchable or just not worth the risk when stocks are running. But if you were going to bottom fish on an index, at least now you can see and have a reason. Since Stocks are making new high’s daily and have run 4 weeks straight without a loss, a smart investor might just pull their money out here and go 100% bonds as a gamble. I never claimed to be smart, so I will just stay put.

Not much of change since last week, but I wanted to make sure that you see what I see. Staying put at 50-50 C and S.

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