Do you know what I love more than anything else when I talk to folks and they say, “this is to hard or they do not have enough time to babysit their Retirement account?” Looking at my numbers after all the work and effort I have put into learning when I got my ass handed to me during 2001-2002 and 2007-2008. My current PIP and my year over year gain in my account even made me sit down and smile. The only sad part of these numbers is that as much fun as it would be to touch the money, I can’t because of the rules of retirement. But I know it is there.
Your Personal Investment Performance (PIP) for the past 12 months ending 07/31/2013 is 21.09%.
(Your PIP is posted by the 3rd business day of each month.)
My retirement account value from 8/2/2012 to 8/2/2013 increase in value – $183,070
If you look at those numbers as bragging then you’re getting the wrong message because you’re a negative person. If you took these numbers as an incentive, you’re on plain with me. Don’t wait till you get your ass handed to you, because it will happen eventually, learn and babysit.
Above left is the S&P500 and right is Small Cap. There is not a lot to talk about here with either chart but the one thing that is showing is that each index might be just a little overbought. It is not extreme, but definitely leaning to the upside of overbought. Both these indexes just broke out of a very short Bull flag so being overbought here is not unusual. Do you remember the level that our measured move for the S&P? It was mentioned in this POST. This week we broke the 1700 level and we should be heading to 1783 before we get a pause or pullback. That is a technical move and not one that is guaranteed by the Stock Market God’s. The measured move for the Small Cap is $938.
Just to add another reason to stay invested at these high levels and I want you to look at the Monthly Charts for the S&P 500 and Small Cap. There is nothing here not to like and the charts are screaming to stay invested. Believe me, we will get a really big pullback eventually and when that happens, the charts will get you out to miss most of it. News and rumors make you do dumb things.
Bonds, Monthly, Weekly, and Daily. The first charts shows exactly why long term you should stay out of Bonds. That is ugly. The Weekly chart fired it’s last sell signal December of 2012. Finally the Daily chart is showing that once again price was rejected and the only thing you could possibly being thinking here is bottom fishing at $105. Why invest in this vehicle where there seems to no returns and only downside risk. There will come a time to jump in here, but it is not today.
Ok, as individual funds go you should know that you can always invest in the G because it is safe. Problem is the return so far this year is .95%. Safe but not much better than putting it under the mattress. The C and S are a go until proven otherwise. The returns this year have been incredible. What I want to talk about now is the International Index. I should have listen to my mind Friday and jumped in, but I didn’t. So we are going to look at all the reason why it is going to be a buy Monday as long as price is sideways or up.
Above is the International Index that we use to track the I-fund. Friday on this daily chart we have an official buy signal. The day before that before confirmed that higher pivot low and what we needed to draw that new short term up trend line in green, (dashed lines). So we broke the CBL, we are above the 50 day moving average and the last down trend has been broken and deleted. What else can we use to support this. Let’s look at the Weekly.
The weekly never fired a sell and if you listened to this chart, you should still be invested here. There is nothing not to like on the chart and it looks like the uptrend will be continued.
The monthly chart above is the last piece of the puzzle if you believe in the long term charts. June 30th, there was a sell signal, so it told you to stay out the month of July. On July 31, a buy signal was fired. So now I feel I’m 2 days behind that signal but I will take the move come Monday as long as the markets are not tanking. There is just to much saying get in and get in now, so I will move at least 10% of my monies over Monday.
So knowing everything that we know now, being invested in everything but bonds is advisable. All of the L-funds look good and even though they invest in bonds, none of them makeup more than 9% of the portfolio. Plus since we are close to bottom fishing on Bonds, I do not think it will hurt these L-funds. I like to pick my individual setup using the individual funds. So I will makeup my mixture in my mind by Monday and go with that. At the most extreme, I will equally divide my money over 3 funds, C,S, and I.
Have a great weekend.
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