As I always do here, I like to report my actual numbers and performance because one of the things in the stock market business that I hate are those folks that talk about how well they are doing but will never show you their bottom line. Below is a cut & paste from my last 12 month performance from the TSP Website.
Your Personal Investment Performance (PIP) for the past 12 months ending 10/31/2013 is 22.34%.
(Your PIP is posted by the 3rd business day of each month.)
This meets my rules of no double digit losses, 7% gain or greater in any 12 month period. Anything better is a bonus and anything worse and I’m not babysitting my account. Now let’s look at our indexes and current charts. Believe it or not some of the daily charts are approaching possible warnings soon.
The S&P 500 is safe at the moment but it would not surprise me one bit if the CBL would fail next week. The CBL chases price uphill and it has moved up on these small price movements. Still a bailout is 100 points below current price.
The Small Cap is also safe at the moment. It has a feature that concerns me a little and that feature is a new pivot high that formed this week. Normally there is a pullback of at least 2 weeks or so but the important part of a pivot high is that when price pulls back it doesn’t fall further than the last pivot low. The last pivot low base is $894. The bailout price next week is $897.
The International index above is under the same stresses as the Small Cap. The CBL will likely fail next week. We have room for a safe pull back and recovery here as long as it is healthy pullback. The pivot low must hold as does the bailout price of $61.87.
Bonds did fire warning one Friday because if fell through the uptrend line. Price closed within 1 cents of the CBL. The bailout price on Bonds is just 45 cents away. I just do not like bonds at this moment in time, so use your own discretion here. Risk and reward.
So my conclusion for my weekend report is pretty simple. Short term I believe we are in a short term pullback and or consolidation. Long term, I think we are going to continue higher in the C,S, and I. Bonds? meh! what’s the reward at this time?
So over the last 5 years, how did November treat us?
Above I highlighted the month of November for the past 5 years. 3 out 5 were down. The ones that were up, were not up by much. So my conclusion has to be, November should be a shaky month at best. In 2008, we should have been out of the market and in the G, so you really cannot count that disaster year, but the rest of them should be. Is it enough information to make me pull out and run? Sorry, but no. I will also have to say that it seems that after the third week of November that we normally have good runs into the next year that sometimes runs through March. So I will bail when my levels are met and not till then.
So in case I scared you out of the market using the daily data charts, let me show you long term monthly charts since 2008. The months of November are marked highlighted bars and the dates are directly under them. One bar is one month. Reading the chart from left to right we have 2008 first. See the blue 10 period moving average? Well you see that in 2008 long before November we should have been out of the market and safely in the G. So it didn’t matter what November did. In June 2009 we got a re-entry signal and that took us through May of 2010, so once again November didn’t matter. September 2010 another re-entry and once again it made November not matter. Then an exit in August of 2011 that lasted till January 2012, so we were out in November 2011, again it did not matter. A re-entry in January of 2012 takes us to present time and looking at the monthly, we are safe and suppose to be in.
So this helps confirm my belief that we should stay invested for now and let price dictate to us. The more I watch the more I believe that monthly charts are the way to go for long term TSP investing. It pretty much eliminates all drama of news and the people around us talking.
Hope you had a great weekend.
No comments:
Post a Comment