Last week was an awesome week in the Stock Market for me, not only in my TSP but my personal stocks. My TSP balance is at all time highs and something I would like to see continue for at least another year. If we have another 20% year next year, all my goals for retirement will be met and all that is left to do is manage it with the same methods that got me to this point. I will be the first to tell you that trading individual stocks is hard. What makes it worse is that I cannot give it my full attention and something that I hope to do in retirement. No matter, last week I had some incredible moves and as long as I do not dumb myself into losses, I will have my first positive year trading stocks that I have seen in 3 years. So far this year I have 37 winners and 37 losers and I’m up 2.2% realized and almost 10% unrealized. Doesn’t sound to great, but it something I’m very proud of and I will show you my P/L. Most traders will not show you their P/L and if they will not, walk away. They are blow smoke up your a$#………If trading individual stocks was easy, none of us would be working and we would all be trading for a living.
The S&P 500 is working on a three day breakout and is overbought at this moment in time. I would expect to see maybe another day or two of up and then prices will likely start to consolidate. Nothing goes straight up. One thing I have to keep in mind is that there is no overhead resistance to work against so there really is nothing at the moment that will keep prices from continuing higher. The other thing to consider is that the monthly, weekly, and daily charts all agree right now that prices are going higher and you should be in.
The Small Cap also had a breakout last week but what is different is that it really needs to take out the last pivot high. That pivot high just happens to coincide with the all time high. We always want higher pivot highs and higher pivot lows in order to keep a healthy uptrend working. As with the S&P500, the Small Cap monthly, weekly, and daily charts are all saying the same thing and we should be invested here.
Friday the International index had it’s breakout. This follows the S&P and Small Cap, so it is good to see that all indexes are saying the same thing. Monday as long as we are up or holding above $65.97 by 11:30am, you can take that signal to open a position in the I-fund. This index also needs to take out the last high of $66.96 and the last pivot high of $66.69. These two points are close and they should fall at the same time. This is important to maintain structure of a healthy uptrend. Monthly and weekly charts for the International index are also saying stay in.
I feel obligated to talk about bonds, but why someone would invest in them individually makes no sense to me. If you are forced to invest in them via the L-funds, I’m good with that because the amount invested in Bonds will not hurt you. Looking at the chart it is possible that a base is forming around $106.70. What I expect to happen is for price to rollover and continue the path of lower highs and lower lows. Only time will tell, but for now, where is the risk and reward for Bonds?
Conclusion: C and S gave you all a secondary entry breakout this week, so milk it while you can. The I fired a buy Friday and as long as the levels that I pointed out above are holding by 11:30am Monday, you could step into the International Index also. All the indexes are in agreement that being invested in the stocks is currently working and trending higher. If you are scared of the current levels and the new highs being made, then the G fund or L-income is the only place to be to be safe.
Here’s hoping for another awesome week for week 47.
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