We had a week that was a little hard to watch Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, but the last two days things reversed and we ended up with a gain. My gain for the week was small, but at .16%, I will take it. Make sure you read that correctly, point one six percent and not sixteen percent. I would love to have the sixteen percent gain in one week, that would be very nice. So since we seem to be rolling along and have no drama in the news department and the stock market, I spent most of the morning looking for reasons to be concerned. Maybe find something that might alarm me. I didn’t see much and I will show you below what I found, but what bothers me was Friday when the markets were up, my personal stocks got pounded. So when that happens, it makes me think that there is a divergence that needs to be found. I could not find it. So maybe my stock picking just sucks.
My TSP account did make another all time high as of the close Friday. It made me want to know just how much my year over year difference in account value was in dollars and percent. Let’s just say, it floored me. My account increased in value 33%. If you want the dollar figure, ask me and I will tell you. Teach yourself today to babysit your account because when you retire no new money is coming in and you will need to be able to make the same decision with your life line after you retire as you do today. Steady growth is your friend.
The S&P 500 chart above is currently in a state of happiness for all those that are invested in the C-fund. We are making new highs and structure is pretty. Making higher highs and higher lows. I drew a dark blue channel just to give us a early warning sign when things might show they are turning against us. Once price closes out of the channel lower, we will want to watch closely. CBL is safe, 50 day moving average is safe, and the sell point is safe, resting at $1690. Just so you know the math without a calculator, $1690 is a 6.2% drop from the current $1803 level. $1803, wow! who would have thought that January 1, 2013 when the S&P was sitting at $1426 that prices would rise almost 27%. I bet most people would have bet against that happening.
The Small Cap is not making new highs but is very close to highs. What I see developing here is an ascending triangle. Click HERE for a description. Yes it is a bull sign but it has to be confirmed. All I want is price to breakout of the $966 area and start climbing. Everything as far as price in concerned is safe and the sell point is $902.
The International is a little more concerning than the Small Cap in that it has been 24 trading days since the last high. The triangle that I have drawn here is different and is called symmetrical triangle. Click HERE for a description. This type of triangle can break in either way so it is harder to tell if this is a bull or bear signal. We are going to have to watch this more closely than that of the Small Cap. Even with this information, price is safe and the sell point is $62.42.
Conclusion, I have nothing to say about Bonds. The C-fund is making us all happy and I believe that unless some unforeseen news event happens, we are still heading higher. It’s a seasonal thing. The Small Cap and International really need to start moving along with the S&P 500 or this could be a signal of divergence and a sign that the markets are getting ready to reverse. Right now, I hold and watch my current position. If you are looking to get in, I have no help for you because those signals passed last week or so. There is a chance that the Small Cap and International will give us another signal soon if the break up out of those triangles. If they do, I will attempt to post something saying so.
This week is a holiday week and I expect that the volume will be light and price could go either way. Markets are closed Thursday and only trade half day Friday. I expect all major moves will start Monday, December 2nd. Yes, the last month of the year.
Hope you had a great weekend.
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