Part 2 of week 49 TSP update. Here are the charts.

This was a very hard week to watch and one that made a lot of people worried. To bailout or stay in? That was the question of the week and if you open the chart at the beginning of this paragraph you will see monthly, we didn’t even flinch. So all the drama was in your mind or in the news or on a daily chart. But before I show you the daily and where we stand, let’s look down deep into the week and peek at that 5 minute chart.

Four days of lower and lower prices and then we fell through the first warning CBL and then Friday! Friday saved the day or the week and put us back into the safe territory. It is easy to see looking at this chart why people were getting scared and ready to run. Ok, here you can see the drama and the TV set was never turned on, so why watch the talking heads unless you’re just bored. Now let’s move onto the daily.

So looking at the daily above it is easy to see that we are now safe again with no warnings. We also created a higher pivot low, if just barely, and that also put us back into the blue channel. What needs to happen now is that we take out that last pivot high at $1813. This will keep the trend intact and make me happy. Other than these details, the S&P 500 looks healthy and in perfect shape.

Small Cap is completely safe at the moment in time and we just need to sit back and watch.

The international index still has me very concerned at the moment and I’m not convinced that we are safe here. It is going to take more time and price confirmation to know the real direction. Falling out of the previous channel that is no longer shown on the chart above would indicate we are going lower. After Fridays big move up, price created a lower pivot low which allows you to draw a Bull Flag. So you can see it in white above and it really does not change anything. If price falls out of that channel it only helps confirm that we are heading lower. If it breaks out of the top, everything will be set right. The last thing to mention is that warning one is still on and will have to be watched.

Looks like bonds once again are in trouble and could be heading lower. There is just nothing to like here. The monthly chart says stay out. The weekly says stay out and the daily is saying stay out. If your in bonds, other via the L-funds, good luck with that. Eventually bonds will reverse and when that happens, I will invest, but until that happens, I stay out.

Conclusion: Basically we sit back a take a breath because of Fridays big move back up. We are pretty much safe on the 3 primary indexes but we will really have to watch the International more closely. Personally I think we are still heading higher but I have nothing to base it on but this. A trend is hard to break and right now the overall trend is still up. If you do not believe me, look at all the monthly charts with the exception of Bonds which is down.

Hope your having a great weekend. Enjoy the Snow!!