Hard to believe that another year has gone by, but we only have 6 more trading days left in 2013. I expect that volume will fall off by 50% during that time so prices could be choppy. What I do not expect, is to give much of our gains back or to make much more for the remainder of the year. It has been an awesome year and we can only hope to have a repeat in 2014. To expect it is wrong, but to want it is okay. Either way, Charts R us will hopefully keep us in the green.
The S&P 500 still looks a little sloppy to me for the month of December but we are in the green as of Friday. Not only are we in the green, we are back to new Year-to-date highs and all time highs. What I like to watch closely is the closing highs and yes we made one of those on Friday also. Currently there are zero warnings on the S&P and the bailout price marked on the chart is a 5% drop. So even if that happened, there is no way we give back our gains for 2013. That is a great place to be.
The Small Cap daily is also back on track and back in the green for the month of December. It is also making new YTD highs and all time highs. Marked on the chart is also a 5.7% pullback that would be our bailout point.
Above is Bonds and they are still not worth investing any serious capitol. The base that it has built since October 19th is impressive and one that I will continue to watch. The wedge that has been falling since October 30th would indicate that something is going happen very soon. So we sit back and watch the show. I will not guess here.
After the close Tuesday last week, I was within minutes of making the decision to bailout of the I-fund and just move the money to the C & S. In hindsight that would that would have been a good move but it was an emotional move. This is index is giving me heartburn and I have said many times in the past post that I’m watching this one closely. Technically by the chart we are still good. Even the intermediate uptrend, the dotted green line, is still working. So why is it giving me heartburn?
I entered the I-fund on October 18th and since October 22nd, the index has pretty much been sliding downhill since. So do I have gain in the I-fund? Yes I do, .34% since that date. The C fund and S has kicked butt since that time at 5.32% and 3.79% over the same period, so I kind of feel I wasted 20% of my investment.
Ok, back to the chart, after the close Friday warning 2 is temporarily cancelled. Warning 1 is still on. We are back inside the bull flag and the worrying and watching continues here. Weekly we closed just barely above a buy signal by 3 cents, so maybe it is a true turning point. I do not think we will get an answer until after the new year gets going, so wait and watch is what I will be doing.
Conclusion: All the L-funds are still a go. The C and S are still a go. Bonds, F, not so much. The I fund? This could be a good entry point and it could be a head fake. Either way the I-fund is my most important watch as it has been the entire month of December. I think if I where looking to invest here I would wait until at least we took out the last lower pivot high at $65.41 printed on December 9th or wait until it closes above the Bull flag. I’m not looking for much excitement on the market this week.
Hope you’re having a great weekend.
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