TSP end of Week & end of month numbers 1/31/2014

That was not the way that I wanted to see 2014 start but that’s the stock market. No one can predict the future because if that was possible, you, me, and everyone else would have bailed out January 1st, 2014. The first thing I want to cover is those that invest using the monthly charts. We all have decisions to make this month for sure. The I-fund and the F-fund are in question.

Disregard all the lines on the chart above except the Decision line and closing price. As you can see, we are not even close to selling or bailing out of the C-fund and we have another 4.2% downward movement to go before that happens. So for the month of February, the monthly chart says stay in.

The Small Cap monthly is also saying to stay invested. Prices would have to fall another 6.5% in order to get a sell signal.

By the letter of the rule book, price is above the decision line on the International Index. So living by the letter of the law, you have to trust it and stay invested here. Most of you know by now that I bailed out of the International last week because of the daily chart movement. So you’re going to have to use the information above and run with it. If I was 20 years younger, I would use the monthly chart and stay in.

Ok here is where it is going to get interesting. Bonds fired a buy signal on the monthly chart. Bonds had already fired a buy signal on the daily charts 1/13/14 or 14 trading days ago. So it is hard to ignore bonds anymore from this point forward. So what I’m going to show below is some distribution that you should consider.

We have 4 indexes or funds that are now considered a buy using the monthly charts. I will never count the G-fund because that is our bailout fund when things are ugly.

First distribution is easy, 100% divided by 4 means 20% in each fund, C, S, I, and F.

Second distribution is based on the L-2050 – 45% C, 10% F, 25% S, and 20% I

Third Distribution is based on the L-2040 - 42% C, 13% F, 25% S, and 20% I

Fourth Distribution is based on the L-2030 - 41% C, 15% F, 25% S, and 19% I

Fifth Distribution is based on the L-2020 - 40% C, 17% F, 25% S, and 18% I

All I did above is take the L fund distribution from the TSP website and dropped the G fund portion out of the equation and added a little bit to each fund. So there you have it, 5 different ways to setup your mixture based on risk and the monthly charts.