Ok the first thing I want to post because I think I forgot is my PIP from January 2014. Remember my rules, we shoot for 7% or greater in any 12 month period and no double digit losses. There are going to be years where this is going to be very hard but you attempt to contain the losses. Below is the PIP.
Your Personal Investment Performance (PIP) for the past 12 months ending 01/31/2014 is 16.58%.
(Your PIP is posted by the 3rd business day of each month.)
So my PIP meets the rules and I’m happy. Last week the C, S, and I all kicked ass and took my Year to date earnings back to green. The only index that suffered a little bit was bonds. Now the charts.
So everything that we needed to happen last week happened this week and now the march is on to higher prices. Right? Not so fast because just overhead is the resistance line that has been tested a few times and needs to be taken out. I think if prices can get through the all time high of $1850, we are going to march higher because what is there to stop them? It is what we call a vacuum or new territory. I see nothing at this time using the charts that indicates that the uptrend is going to slow anytime soon. We just came off about a 6% pullback or correction, so I say it is more likely to roll up than down because the average Joe has been flushed out again and is trying to get back into the market.
The Small Cap is now all safe and all warnings have been cancelled. The overhead resistance here is a little different in that it has not been tested once. By the look of the angle of the current reversal, next week we should some kind of test of the high’s. If you in here, just sit back and ride.
The International Index has come back strong and hard in the month of February. This is one index I can now look back on and wish I would not have bailed on. At least I can say that I did it without emotion and based on a chart. The International so far this month is up 4.53% but is still down almost 1% YTD. All warnings on the International have been cancelled if you are in here. I never called a re-entry on a daily chart but Tuesday the 11th was the day. I should have made a post, but I didn’t so I apologies for that mistake. If you were using the monthly method, you would have never bailed because below is the cut and paste from the February Monthly moves.
By the letter of the rule book, price is above the decision line on the International Index. So living by the letter of the law, you have to trust it and stay invested here. Most of you know by now that I bailed out of the International last week because of the daily chart movement. So you’re going to have to use the information above and run with it. If I was 20 years younger, I would use the monthly chart and stay in.
So once again the monthly move beats the daily moves. Is anyone keeping score?
On the chart above you can see that we are approaching a very well tested overhead resistance and it is even more important that the level is taken out. If it is not taken out, I fear that price here will go into a sell off. Watch closely here if you are in the I-fund.
Ok, Bonds are in their first early stages of a pullback from the 25 days or over a month of rising prices. So we now have are first bull flag forming. If next week prices continue to fall, the first daily warning will be fired at the 50 day moving average, which is about $107.33. The CBL line is just a little bit lower than that point, which is $107.26. Things are in a very tight range and desire to watched. Ok with all that said, remember the only signal that I used here on Bonds was the monthly signal at the end of January. So, based on the, the next call in or out will not be here until February 28th. So all the above information is just that, information. I’m not invested here but if you are, just watch it closely. If you are using the monthly method, what two weeks and then decide.
So our conclusion this week is pretty easy, we just ride the current wave until broken We know that overhead resistance on the S&P and International is going to be very important to watch, so know the levels. The Small Cap overhead resistance has never been tested, so it will just be fun to watch and see what happens.
Have a great weekend and watch & ride.
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