TSP chart report for 3/31/2014

There is really only two charts that we really need to speak about and I will get to that in a moment. Prices on the market this were ugly for individual stocks if you were in the wrong ones, as I was. I’m not going to spend a lot of time on charts here today because tomorrow is the end of the month and I will have to do a quick post with moves after tomorrow’s close. So let’s get going.

The S&P 500 didn’t do a much this week but continue to consolidate. It did lose a .5% but no warnings levels were fired. Everything is squeezing together at the 50 day moving average area and I expect that we will see movement plus or minus soon. Nothing to do here but watch and wait.

  The Small Cap did take a beating this week with a pullback over 2%. Unfortunately, the CBL in red failed and warning one fired last Wednesday. At the same time warning one fired, the 50 day moving average failed and warning 2 fired. I think it was 2 maybe 3 weeks ago I said in a post that the Small Cap was a little overbought and I expected that price should or would pullback to $1006 to stay healthy. Thursday we closed at $1004 and now I think prices need to slowly start to climb back up. Remember, this is all technical analysis mixed with a little wishful thinking. The markets in the end will ultimately decide which way price will go and we will react to whatever price is doing. Using the daily chart the bailout point for Monday will be $980 and it will rise to around $985 by the end of the week. Watch the Small Caps closely this week.

Bonds did have a good week this week but it’s still just churning. There is no pattern anymore. You pivot highs and pivot lows that stack like a staircase going up or going down to have a trend. What we have here is pivots going sideways. So why bother with this index at the moment? At the beginning of March there was an actual buy signal for bonds but it looks to me at the end of March we are going to have a sell signal. What a mess.

Last week I said if prices fell to $64.50 to $64, I was going to gamble and throw some money at the I-fund looking for a quick pop up. That level was never hit but we got the snap up in prices to the tune of 2.61%. I kind of wish I would have jumped in Monday and gone with my gut, but I didn’t. That’s ok, can’t win them all. This week we start the week with no warnings on. What I would like to see happen here is for price to continue higher to the $68.19 level or higher to create a high pivot high.  Maybe if prices continue to rally here, the S&p 500 and Small Cap will follow suit. If your in the I-fund, I would stay, if not I think I would just watch it here. 

Conclusion: We are having a very interesting year so far in 2014. Right now if you’re in the L-funds I would ride it. If you’re in individual funds like I am, you will have to be a little more watchful. The next few days or weeks, to see which way we break. The Small Cap is under the most stress and we are now looking for prices to return to the upside. S&P500 is just a watch.  The International is a watch. Bonds? Nothing! You are on your own with Bonds.

Hope all have had a great weekend.