TSP closing numbers March 21, 2014.

To look at the S&P 500 and Small Cap you would think all is rosy on the markets. Friday we hit a new all time high followed by a sharp pull back from 11:35am and the rest of the day. Small Cap also followed the exact pattern. My personal stock portfolio got absolutely crushed. Why is that important to you? Are the underlying stocks really in good shape or is it just a few stocks and indexes. What happened to stock prices Friday are likely explained by this phenomena called Triple Witching.

Definition of 'Triple Witching'

An event that occurs when the contracts for stock index futures, stock index options and stock options all expire on the same day. Triple witching days happen four times a year on the third Friday of March, June, September and December.
This phenomenon is sometimes referred to as "freaky Friday".

 

Investopedia explains 'Triple Witching'

The final trading hour for that Friday is the hour known as triple witching. The markets are quite volatile in this final hour, as traders quickly offset their option/futures orders before the closing bell. If you are a long-term investor, triple witching will have a minimal impact on you.

HA! It had a large impact on my personal stocks and when I show you the minute chart on the S&P and Small Cap, you will see it drove the market most of the day.

So looking at those two charts alone, it is easy to see that Friday was not a good day on the market. Now let’s see the primary charts.

Everything with the S&P 500 is in order at the moment. Higher pivot low’s, 50 day moving average is rising, on trend, and no warnings. We are churning slightly sideways, but nothing yet to be concerned about. The S&P is one of the indexes keeping me in the green so far in 2014. Keep riding the c-fund.

  The Small Cap is our largest winner so far in 2014 and is the second reason I’m in the green for 2014. I think prices here got a little ahead of the rest of the markets, so consolidation appears to going on right now. Structure here looks as good as the S&P. Keep riding the S-fund.

The International index has just been a roller coaster in 2014. Timing those peaks and valley’s have for me, been impossible. Currently two warnings are active and if we drop below that monthly mark on the daily chart $63.87, this is a sell. Now I’m not invested here and I know the I-fund is down 3.25% for March and 2% for 2014, so if prices hit $64.50 to $64 in the near future, I’m going to gamble a little money for a bounce. I just feel that a pivot low here is due. If it reverses before that point, I will just shrug it off and stay invested solely in the C and S. Watch this index close next week.

So once again this week, bonds fired a sell signal. That’s two weeks in a row and price has barely moved up or down. I do know this, if the month ended last Friday, Bonds would have been a sell. I guess bottom fishing could be started here on bonds if you believe a double bottom has been shown above. I’m not buying it.

All L-funds so far in March are losers many because of the I-fund and F-fund.

Conclusion. Stay invested in the C and S-funds. I fund could be ready for a reversal or quick pop next week. Might be worth jumping in, getting a 2% move and getting back out. I’ll be watching this setup next week. Bonds, F-fund? Good luck with that. I cannot find a pattern worth following here yet.

Hope you all had a  great weekend. Come on Spring time!!