This week will be the last full week of April and it always amazes me how time flies the older I get. This past week was a nice relief recovery and gave a nice pause to all the losses that we have seen in April. We are all back in the green for 2014 but it sure doesn’t feel like it. Me personally am only up .81% for the year and I’m behind every L-fund. That doesn’t happen often, but it is a fact as of last Friday. A lot of people have asked me how to get back in since they bailed out. Ok, I’m going to give you a few hints, but just keep in mind this. Only the C-fund, Small Cap actually fired a sell signal, so I can only really help you with that one index. The S&P 500 I will give you a point to look at, but keep in mind it never fired a sell. Neither did Bonds or the International.
Looking at the long term uptrend line it appears that prices are starting to recover but it still to early to tell. But since the sell was fired and confirmed, it looks like that it may have been a false signal. Once again, to early to tell. What I would look for to get back is one of two things or both. Taking out the last pivot high by closing the day at a higher price than the pivot is the first move. That point is 1014. Once you get a closing price above 1014, you need the following to hold the previous closing price or higher by 11:30am. Hope that makes sense and it’s another reason to just follow the monthly moves. Less to think about. The Second method is to wait for a closing price to take out the CBL to the upside. That point is even higher at 1036. So you would wait for a closing price above 1036 then the next day it would have to hold the closing price or higher by 11:30am in order to get back in.
Just keep in mind here, the overall short term structure of the Small Cap is still negative.
So there you have. I like the second one the best because it will also break the short term down trend at the same time. Since I decided to wait until the end of April to make my decision to bail here or not, I’m still 65% into the Small Cap. I never bailed.
The S&P 500 never fired a sell signal but did fire a few warnings. If you bailed out of the C, then I would wait until the last pivot high is taken out and then get back in. The last pivot high is 1872, so a close above that point and a hold would be a good point to re-enter. For the rest of us that did not bail, there are no warnings at the moment and structure still looking pretty good. So we just watch and wait.
The International still has a short term downtrend in affect. At the same time, we have a long term uptrend in affect. It happens, but notice one is long and one is short. One will fail soon. No warnings on the International Index, so we just watch and wait.
NO warnings on Bonds and structurally everything looks good at the moment. Thursday was a big sell off, but uptrend is still intact. If you in, stay in and just monitor movement closely. I will make my decision to in or out of Bonds at the end of the month. Right now it is close and could go either way.
Conclusion: If your still in the L-funds or C,S, I, and F, just stay in and watch. Currently there is nothing do but wait. If you were looking for entrees, please go back to the top and re-read this blog.
Let’s hope for a good drive up to the end of April.
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