The S&P 500 and or C-fund is damaged and my gut says more to come. Why? The Nasdaq and Small caps are falling apart and in big trouble. Right now the S&P has 2 warnings fired and the bailout will be a close below $1802.
There is nothing to like here on the Small Cap. Short term down trend was confirmed after last weeks post and this week just confirmed it again. The CBL and 50 day moving failed, the recovered, and the failed again. Now as of Friday, we have a full fledge sell signal on the daily chart. Monday we would need prices to be rising above $989 by 11:30am in order to stop a bailout Monday. Seeing that the current pre-market numbers are ranging between minus 1 and 6 points down, I doubt Monday we will see a plus day. If your making moves using the monthly method, you have about two weeks to hope for a reversal. Nothing here looks positive at the moment. Even the 50 day moving average is now falling. Sigh!
The International held up fairly well this past week but was not immune from the major pullback. Warning 1 & 2 fired Thursday and Friday, so we are back on a watch here. Uptrend is still intact and there is more room here for a pullback before a sell is fired. Watching here.
As expected, when stocks take a beating, everyone run to bonds and that is exactly what happened here last week. The short term downtrend that I showed last week is now broken and based off that surge and new pivot, we can draw a nice intermediate uptrend. At least we have something we can watch and base entry calls off of now. 50 day moving average is rising and as more of 2014 moves forward, the more and more bonds look like the way to go. I tried to enter the last two months using the monthly method, but I got a entry and exit back to back months. At this current pace, at the end of April we will get the 3rd move as a buy in 3 straight months. This is very unusual.
Conclusion. Obviously last week sucked. Based on what I see at this moment in time, I expect more pain next week. The only true bailout we have Monday is Small Caps, S-fund using the daily chart. I’m staying in and will make my move at the end of April based on the Monthly chart. Bonds on a daily chart are a buy, but I will not move to bonds until the end of the month using the monthly charts. International and S&P are safe at the moment and are a watch.
If you want to why my sudden change on making moves based on monthly instead of daily, the last two years the monthly charts have beat me and the daily chart decisions. Let’s hope the current sell off ends soon, because it is getting ugly.
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