Well it doesn’t get much worse than today’s close and the numbers for the month of July 2014 compared to last years numbers. Ugh! For the year, I’m still up, but it feels like my nuts keep getting kicked. Ok, I will post some daily charts but I think when I get down to the bottom and I post my conclusion, you are going to be shocked.
Today fired warning 1 and 2. The sell on the daily chart is $1896. Remember, we need a close below that level and follow through the next day.
There is the first Sell signal of the year I think The I-fund closed below the green uptrend line and therefore fired a sell signal. Tomorrow if we don’t get back above $66.84, then bail from the I-fund. Just remember, my daily chart signals differ big time from the slow moving monthly signals. But if you remember correctly, the I-fund was seriously close to a sell on the monthly chart.
Bonds also fired warning 1 & 2 over the last 2 days which is kind of odd. Normally as stocks get hammered, the safety valve is bonds. not the case this time which is a very odd divergence. This is something to watch. Maybe it is an indication that stocks just did a knee jerk today. Either way, stock chart rules and whatever it says we listen to.
Small Cap!! I’m going to be talking a bit here about the Small Cap and what Mark is going to do and it’s going to blow your mind, but it is what I see and hear. Yes I did say hear. The Chart above fired a sell signal today by closing below the green uptrend line. Tomorrow, price needs to get back above $1012 by 11:30am in order to cancel this sell signal. So there it is, those are the rules for the daily chart. Below I will go further with my thoughts and what I’m doing tomorrow.
Before I speak about the chart above, let set the table. The Daily chart by my old rules is firing a sell signal that has to be confirmed tomorrow. The Monthly chart is not firing a sell signal and is saying stay in long term or buy here. The indicator I using on the bottom of the chart above has some very interesting data that has proven right six times over the last 3 years. When the Green, Blue, and red line all merge at or below the purple line that I drew, shortly after prices start rising. Sometimes price bounces around a few more days, but it starts rising. So Dixon will be rolling the dice tomorrow. These are my rules for tomorrow. As long as the Small Cap is holding at $1006 or above by 11:30am, I will be moving 100% S-fund. Big gamble, but long term the above information is to tempting to stay away from. If by the end of August, the monthly chart say’s bailout, I will bailout.
The Conclusion using just the daily charts is like this. S-fund and F-fund safe, but have warnings to watch. The S and I funds both fired sell signals that must be confirmed tomorrow. Yes, I will do my best to post the signals tomorrow by 11:30am. Long term this stuff is easy, short term this stuff is hard. The more I do it, the more I believe the long term moves win most times.
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