At this point in time using the daily charts, F-bonds and C-S&P500 is still safe and are a hold. The S-Small Cap and I-International were a sell and we are looking for re-entry points. No matter what Dixon did, those facts remain. Monthly you’re still riding whatever setup you have until August 31.
The horizontal red line is the CBL line and is broken. That is warning one. The 50 day moving average, the blue curvy line, broken and that is warning two. The green uptrend line is still safe so the C-fund is still safe. The closing price this week was $1931 and next weeks sell price will be $1910. That is only another 1% drop and the C-fund will be in trouble. Ok, those are the numbers but what you have to see is the bullflag forming. Normal price movement out of a bullflag is up more than 75% of the time. Normal length is three weeks. I would say that we are at least 2 weeks into this flag, so next week or the following we should see a break one way or the other. If you’re still in, there is nothing to do but watch and wait.
The Small Cap fired a sell and confirmed the sell on the daily when the green uptrend was finally broken on the chart above. So what we have to do now is find a logical re-entry. Yes, I went all in based on some silly crap using the last Pivot Low, but believe me it is betting on something that hasn’t happened yet. So here we go. We are flagging in a bull flag and will be watching closing for prices to breakout the top. That pattern of lower pivot lows, the red PL’s you see on the chart also have to be broken. No more lower pivot lows can happen, or it’s a no go.
If no more pivot lows are created, then what are are re-entry rules. Price needs to break up and out of the flag. Price needs to close above the 50 day moving average. That price is currently $1024. Price will also have to close above the green CBL line, which is $1031. So if you bailed from the S, then that is your new number, $1031 or above.
Right now the International fund is a disaster. We are free falling. This one index basically caused all the L-funds last week to be losers. Ok, prices need to stabilize and then reverse. This is obvious. Re-entry point as of today will be as follows. The green CBL line is at $66.56. Then the 50 day moving average is next at $67.72.
I know the monthly investors are looking at that purple line going, hmm!!! Yes if today was August 31st, it would be a sell. Today is not August 31st and a reversal can happen, so you have to wait for it.
Bonds are still grinding and still safe. Nothing to do here but watch and wait. No warnings.
Conclusion: Should be an interesting couple of weeks waiting to see what happens with the S-fund. I still believe it is driving the current market conditions. So if they take off, the rest will follow.
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