Currently the C-fund and or the S&P 500 is safe. We had been fading off of the recent highs, but slowly with no drama. Next week we could start testing points of concern if prices continue lower. The CBL and 50 day moving are closing in on the same level so taking them both out at the same time is possible. Like I said, right now daily we are safe.
Just like the S&P 500, the Small Cap and or S-fund is safe. Lower prices next week will start to test the CBL and 50 day moving average. So far the Small Cap has done exactly like I figured it would do, hit the high and back off, then consolidate. What I would like to see from here is maybe a few days of consolidation and then have price break through those highs. The Small Cap is still the index that is not making all time highs.
September 3rd I put out this post, There you go. So on the 4th, if price held above $67.16 by 11:30, that would confirm a buy. Well it did do that but it was fading fast by 11:30. The rest of that day price continued to fade into the close. Disappointed to see that fail but is the system I have built was designed because of the TSP requirements to get by 12noon in order to take affect by 4pm same day. Since the 4th, price has continued down to fire warnings 1 and 2 by settling below the 50 day moving average and CBL. We will have to watch this index closely next week because the sell line is sitting at $65.70. Current price is $66.02, so we are close.
What happened to Bonds this week is very concerning to me for a couple of reasons. First though, all of what I’m about to tell you happened this past week. We already had a warning from last weeks post when the CBL failed. Monday after the close, the 50 day moving average failed firing warning 2. Tuesday, the long term uptrend failed and fired a sell signal. Wednesday the sell signal was confirmed. Did anyone actually own just the F-fund? If you did, sorry for not putting out a sell post Tuesday and Wednesday. Thursday and Friday selling continued and it looks pretty bad.
The thing that concerns me is this. Normally when stock go down, Bonds go up because everyone is looking for safety. This past week stock prices also went down. Another signal that stocks might be ready to get a pounding is that Gold and Silver takes off and prices start to climb. That is not happening. Gold and Silver are now hitting new lows and falling. Lastly Utilities should be going up if stock prices are getting ready to fail. Utilities are also declining. So I’m a little confused at the moment trying to figure out which force is going to take charge. Something has to give sooner or later so I will be watching all these forces closely next week.
So using the Daily charts, the C and S are safe. The I-fund could be in trouble very soon if things do not reverse soon. F-fund is collapsing quickly and is a sell using the daily chart. If this was the end of the month, the I and F funds would both be a sell. Stuff is setting for a move, but which direction we go is hard to read today.
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