Charts for the TSP 10/5/14

Last week was another hard week in the markets and it finally took its toll on the S&P 500 as well. Thursday the S&P fired a sell signal by breaking below the uptrend line. Friday the markets finally rallied and the sell signal was not confirmed. Still looks a little shaky here because price is below the CBL and 50 day moving average.

The Small Cap finally created a pivot low on the Daily chart. We need to confirm this Monday by staying above the high of last Thursday. That price is $992.87. Holding above that point is the first step in repairing the damage here and hopefully higher prices. The buy CBL in green is $1013, that needs to be taken out and then we need to close above the 50 day moving average. If we can get all that done, I will take my safe money and roll it back into the S-fund. This is a work in progress.

I know I have one follower here that is big on a snap back of the I-fund and I tend to agree with him. This trend cannot continue and not affect the Small Cap and S&P 500. That is because I believe we live in a world economy where things tend to ripple through all markets eventually. What we need to see here before we commit to risking money, is structure. Something that gives us an edge. First we need a pivot low at a minimum. We do not have have that. Prices continue to fall. The green CBL will need to taken out as well as the 50 day moving average. That is a long way off today and if I had to put a number on it today, that number would be. $65.92. Today price is at $62.68. We are 5% below that today. To much risk without an edge.

Bonds fired a buy signal Wednesday and confirmed it on Thursday. Friday we did tick down, but stocks were rolling so that was expected. Bonds are a buy daily and monthly and are low risk, so I will stay invested until given a reason to get out. I have a very small exposure here at 13% of my portfolio, but it gives me a little security blanket.

Not much change from last week. C and F are a buy. S looks shaky on the daily and was barely a buy on the monthly. I, is a sell.

October last was a very good month, but so was September and look what happened last September. Ugly.