TSP Numbers closing 10/17/14

 

I guess you could say the S&P 500 was just playing catch up with the Small Cap and International, because the S&P did fall the most this week at just over 1%. Only good news is that the intermediate trend held and we in doing that we created a pivot low. Does this mean we have a reversal starting? To early to make that call. At face value you have to cautious because the current price is below the monthly moving average which would long term investors should sell. We have two weeks left in the month of October and a lot can happen good and bad till then, so monitoring price the rest of the month is important.

As far as a daily buy signal goes, we need price to close above the green horizontal line, the CBL, and above the 50 day ma. If price does this, that will take care of the monthly levels.

First the obvious, on a daily chart the Small Cap is still a sell. We are also below the monthly level. There is a lot going on right now on this chart and I will try to make sense of it all to you.

First the low of 2014 was punctured for 4 days but last Thursday and Friday we climbed back above that level. Price also created a pivot low which could signal a reversal. I drew a dark blue horizontal line from the last pivot low and the significance of that level is this. Next week if price can close above that level, it might be a sign that this pull back is over. You can also see that the red dotted line that is going sharply down might actually be failing to hold. So a few good signs on the horizon if prices follows through next week.

Second thing we want to note is the daily buy signals. The green horizontal line is the buy CBL line. Not only does price have to close above that level, price has to close above the 50 day moving average. So price has a lot of work to do before I can say buy.

I have nothing new this week to say about the International Index. Still a sell daily and monthly. Price did create a new pivot low Friday. The green horizontal buy CBL line and 50 day moving average still need to be broken before a but signal is fired. Long way to go.

Bonds are just moving along and I guess looking back with hindsight, I should have more invested here than 13% of my retirement account. Nothing new to day and no warnings to mention.

I hate watching the news and listening to the panic when the markets turn south like this, but I did finally learn my own lesson. As far as my TSP account goes, I’m a long term investor for life with this account. I will be making monthly moves. from here on out. So my warning to you is this, my daily chart reports should be used as a warning of things to come and not something you should act on. Monthly moves will give you more peace of mind and stop the panic you feel. Monthly moves will never get you out at the top or in at the bottom but it sure will guarantee that you will get the long term ride up and you’ll be out for the long ride down.