Thursday and Friday the S&P 500 hit all time trading highs and also hit all time closing highs. Everything is safe here at the moment. Since we just had that major pullback last month, I do not see a pullback in the near future. What could happen though is a little sideways churning. You’ve heard it before and I will say it again, but until the Small Cap starts hitting new highs, the odds are we will churn.
The Small Cap did make a nice recovery off the October lows but here we are again just a few points shy of all time highs. Looking at the last five bars on the chart, which correlate with last five days of last week, you will see it appears we stalled. Stalled or churning, which is it? This type of movement is normal after a nice little run and normally last 5-15 trading days. So we will have to wait and see what happens.
Bonds have been sliding slowly downhill for three weeks now. This week, warning one and two fired only to be erased by a sharp move back up Friday. Technically we are safe on the Daily and Monthly charts with bonds. Uptrend still intact.
The International is still a train wreck and one to stay away from. Hunting for a bottom here is not paying off so far and with the creation of another lower pivot high, this should mean lower prices ahead. The downtrend is still intact. That green CBL line was the first indication that a buy signal was about to fire. Then the close above the 50 day moving was a second sign that a buy was on. Two parts of three were in place. Since that point, prices had faded and now with that lower pivot high we could be headed even lower. Careful if you are bottom fishing.
The International fund help keep all the L-funds down last week with the exception of the L-income. Like I said, be careful bottom fishing the I-fund.
November 2013 was a plus month for us last year but only around 1 to 2% depending on which fund you were in.
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