The S&P 500 made a move this week to put it back in the buy category on the daily chart. The break out was Thursday and then Friday it confirmed but faded late in the day. It’s ok. It is still a buy until it breaks down again. The badge color wedge I drew on the chart for me to show how things were getting compressed and a move in one direction or the other would happen soon. I will remove that and the green CBL line over the weekend. What I add is the new red CBL sell line and it will be placed where I noted on the chart. No new highs were made this week in the S&P. This index seems to be lagging a bit compared to the Small Cap.
The Small Cap also fired and confirmed a buy on the daily chart this week. Not only that but Thursday and Friday we made new all time highs. Thursday was the all time closing high, which I think is the most important thing, but either way new highs. I am going to say that the Small Cap is overdue to lead the markets because all of 2014 the Small Cap lagged and held back the market. So maybe this is beginning of that leadership.
The International also broke out, fired a buy, and confirmed a buy this past week. The International has been absolutely rolling the last 3 weeks. That angle is steep and will be very difficult to maintain. Even the monthly level looks like it is going to fall in the next few days at this pace. I will not assume that is a buy for the I-fund, I will wait till the end of the month. We have seen many reversals on monthly moves before. But the good news is this, finally since September of 2014, the I-fund is a buy on the daily chart.
Are Bonds in trouble? Too early to tell but what is important to note is that warning 1 was fired Friday when the red CBL was broken. Price close just above the 50 day moving average which would be warning 2. Bonds will be a watch next week.
So it was an awesome week last week in that most indexes were up over 3%. That help put me back to my all time highs in my TSP account. I really think that we need the Small Cap and International to keep moving up and I think it will bring the S&P 500 with it.
Oil. Prices are up on the Stock Market and prices are up at the pump. Have we bottomed? No clue whatsoever. But I can tell you that if you look at the charts below in sequence, daily, weekly, and monthly, you will see that daily we have bottomed and bounced a bit. Weekly and Monthly, we are not even close to buy. Oil prices since the low was made just over a week ago are now up 19%. Prices at my local pumps are only up 8%. So I expect next week, pump prices will go up another 8-10% in short order.
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