Daily charts TSP for 3/22/15 – Wow, what a week last week was.

The title of this blog pretty much say’s it all. If you look at last weeks blog post and compare it to this weeks blog post you will see that we had some dramatic moves. Personally, my investment in the TSP went up 3.12%, with an overall 4.71% YTD. I’m very pleased with that return and hope it continues. I would love to see another one of those years that surge more than 35%. This is also the first time in a long time that I’m ahead of all the L-funds. So maybe this patient monthly moving thing is working better than I thought it would. One last little thing to note. If you look at the actual movement for the month of March, with the exception of the S-fund, we are on track to equal March 2014 numbers. The S-fund is smoking this month compared to the rest of the indexes. The other perk is that my TSP account is now at all time highs. 1.8% away from a magic number. If you want to know what that magic numbers is, ask, I’ll tell you.

   Last week we had two sell warnings on the S&P 500 or C-fund. We bounced off of that blue line which was the support of the last pivot low and now, all warnings are off. Next week we need to take out the highs and follow the S-fund to new highs. Support for the S&P 500 is definitely now 2039. I also drew a new short term trend line that will help with warnings in the future in case our uptrend starts to fail. The only thing to watch next week is if we do or do not make new highs.

   Just like last week, the Small Cap is the best looking chart we have right now. No warnings and this index is leading. We waited 6 months for it to take off, so it’s time to reap the rewards of higher highs. No warnings. Sitting back to watch.

   Last week on the daily chart bonds fired and confirmed a sell. Weekly and Monthly were ok but starting to show signs of stress. After this past Friday, we had 4 indications that Bonds are firing buy signals. The Short term down trend was broken and you can see that at point 1 on the chart when the short term down trend line is broken. 2, price moves back above the 50 day moving average. 3, my green CBL line I use to set a buy signal is broken. The day after the 3rd signal is fired the buy signal failed. 4, the buy signal fired again and as long as it hold above the green CBL this coming Monday, it will be a buy. So I’m moving Bonds from sell to hold daily and back to a buy weekly and monthly.

   Of the 4 indexes that we follow, the International index by far made the largest move back to green and forcing buy signals. First thing Monday, price crossed back above the 50 day moving average. Wednesday price exploded above the Green CBL and fired a buy signal on the this daily chart. Thursday it doesn’t look like it, but by 11:30am it was within 2 cents of the level that would make it a buy. I would have taken that signal. Come Friday, another explosive move to new 2015 highs. So Daily we are a buy on the daily chart. Price is also back above the monthly line, so I will take the hold off the monthly. This index still has lot’s of room to move to the upside because we are still 7% below the 2014 high. So now my question in my mind is, how is that weekly chart looking? If all three indexes are green or a buy, that is a fantastic indication that uptrend is on!! So let’s look.

There it is. The last signaled fired was the week of 9/8/14 and it was a sell. As of the close Friday, 1 cents is the difference between a buy and a sell. I’m not a math wizard or anything, but I know enough to know that come Monday morning when the markets open and this chart continues forward, it will fire a buy on the weekly chart. So I’m calling it a week early, I-fund is a buy on the weekly chart.

So last week we were a sell daily and weekly and a hold monthly. This week, all 3 charts, daily, weekly, and monthly are a buy with the I-fund. I say a trend is on for sure now until broken.

So there you have it. Once of the best weeks we have seen in a long time. Just don’t whine next week if we give some of it back as eventually profit taking will happen. If we give it all back, permission to whine is approved and I will even join you. Below is my sometimes normal post on oil.

Since the beginning of 2015, prices appear to be flattening out. You can click the little weekly chart and look at the 62% drop in 7 months from June 2014 to January 2015. That is a massive price drop. So back to our chart, you have to agree that prices have flattened. So I will give you a method to bottom fish, or wait for the weekly, or the very safe method of monthly entry. The Daily method is by far the hardest to follow and understand and unless you have my charts, hard to be spot on. It’s not that critical.

Ok let’s break it down. Step 1, price has to close above the green CBL line. If you do not understand the how’s and why’s of my CBL’s, CLICK HERE. Step 2, price has to close above that red short term down trend line. 3, price has to close above the 50 day moving average in blue. So when all 3 steps have been completed, you have your bottom fishing buy price. You can’t cheat! You must have all 3 signals completed.

Weekly you need to have the 10 period moving average cross above the 30 period moving average. You can set that up on any chart website.

Monthly, you need to have price close above the 10 period moving average. This is harder to find on the internet, but it can be found.

The daily signal is the most risky and fails the most. The weekly and monthly get you in a lot later in the move, but it is normally a lot safer and more successful. Currently Oil, the USO etf is a sell on the daily, weekly and monthly chart. This week we hit new lows, so patients to find an entry is key.