Charts for the TSP, 6/6/15, and it turned really ugly quick. Hello Summer time

I hate summer time trading on the markets. I always seem to get my butt handed to me either in the TSP or my personal trading. Here we are again at the dawn of Summer and it appears to be beginning. But let me start with the good and work toward the bad.

The Small Cap above managed to pull out a .52% gain this week but the over all short term trend is sideways. In other words, it’s consolidating. Not all bad. I would much rather have consolidation with the eventually return to rising prices versus a collapse in prices followed by a rise in prices. One is stress free. We have no warning on any time frame with the Small Cap.

  

The last 13 or so trading days with the S&P 500 has it forming a very nice looking Bullflag. Bullflags are good because in most case, we breakout to the rising prices. But while this is going on, I still have to use my rules and this week we fired warning 1 & 2. So on the daily chart I will now put a hold on this index. Weekly and monthly we are still good to go.

   

This is where things started to go sore quick this week. The International above fired a warning last week. It appeared that we had a sloppy little bull flag, but come Thursday, boom, we gapped down below the CBL and the uptrend line. That fired a sell signal and you can see by even lower prices Friday, it was confirmed. Weekly and Monthly we are ok. This pull back in prices here should not come as a surprise considering how far prices had risen here.

   

Bonds were a sell monthly coming into the month of June. I hope you took it. Last week, prices puked to downside. I think we know we are a sell Monthly and Daily on Bonds, but how about Weekly?

Yes, weekly is now officially a sell. There is absolutely no reason to be in Bonds as and individual index. If you are invested in the L-funds, you do not have choice. It is part of the fund. In my mind, I’m wondering if this means in the near future interest rates are going to start to rise. Why else would bonds be selling off?

Conclusion: I’m concerned that the past two week action on all of our indexes could be a sign of a major pullback. This part of Summer time, I hate. I stay invested until the end of June. Below is the 5 flow of the index compared on the same chart