The S&P 500 this week did end up higher than the week before. But, did we repair any damage we saw for the last 2 weeks? The quick answer is no. Monday and Tuesday we floated lower only to be followed by the next two days of rising prices. So all Friday had to do was hang-on and we could have cancelled the 2 warnings here. It wasn’t to be. As of the close Friday, not only did it not hold on, prices feel hard and created a new lower pivot high. Now we have a new short term down trend line in red that indicates on the daily chart, that we are heading lower. Sigh!
Support? If this downtrend continues, where is support? It is always the last pivot which is $2072. But I also drew another support area on the chart represented by a dark blue line that has a lot of closing days at that level. That level is $2080. So I’m looking for prices to firm up and be defended at $2080. If not, we could be in trouble.
The International had almost the same identical movement in prices this week. It also now has a confirmed short term downtrend. The International daily is currently in the sell mode, so there are no warnings to cancel here. What we are looking for here is a new daily buy signal. Price needs to get back above the 50 day moving average, above the green CBL, and break the short term down trend. That did not get done this week, so the sell is still in effect. More bad news here is that price almost closed below the monthly sell level. I only point that out for this reason. It is not intended to make you sell, you have to wait until the closing numbers on June 30th, what it is intended to do is to just be informative, and that the monthly chart is in a warning mode. Right now it is not, but it’s damn close. I also put those buttons below on there to let you know things like, if all are green, you should be in. It they are all red, what the hell are you thinking investing here. Yellow just means bad things might be brewing. So looking at the buttons below as a monthly investor, I read them to mean, I’m ok monthly but it might be starting to look bad. Might!
So did Bonds have a good week this week? It did create a pivot low which normally means prices are going to rise but that has to be proven. Since January 30th, none have held long. We have two down trends working, a slow one on top and a fast one on bottom. That accelerated down trend started April 27th and just keeps falling. I got nothing new to say here for bonds except stay away unless your in the L-funds. Then you have no choice. Remember what I said about 3 red buttons? Stay away!
The Small Cap index above is the bright spot of the week and the month so far. It is just grinding away holding on to it’s levels. It really needs to get through those levels marked by the blue line. The more we struggle here, the more likely prices will fail and fall. No warnings here. We just watch.
We all want to see higher prices, but sometimes there has to be consolidation of prices or profit taking. Right now, the markets are consolidating and the direction we break is anyone’s guess. Oh to have a crystal ball.
No comments:
Post a Comment