TSP closing numbers as of 7/24/15 - Puke!! -

I was on vacation all last week and only peeked a little each day at the market. By Wednesday I was starting to sense that this was going to be a crap week. I would have to check all my post back to the first of the year, but I bet that this week was one, if not the worse week of the year. I took a 2.39% gulp backwards.  Which 2 indexes got hit the hardest? The S&P 500 and Small Cap. That will explain the hammer I got this week because I’m 50-50 C and S.

So what was the damage done to the charts? It wasn’t pretty.

This week showed us for the 3rd time that $2134 is a critical level. This level was rejected again this week and rejected hard. It concerns me. I think the $2046 or $2045 is a level that has to be held next and in the near future. If that fails, we could be in for a ride. Whatever happens, let’s hope that the monthly level gets us out before the damage. Warning 1 and 2 fired Friday so we are on watch here.

 

Just over a week ago the Small Cap fired a buy signal and confirmed it. It didn’t last long. This week as of Monday closing warning 1 was fired. Friday warning 2 fired as did a sell signal. So this coming Monday, if price doesn’t get back above $1089 by 11:30am, the Small Cap once again will be a sell on the daily chart. Next issue is we now have a new lower pivot high. The dark blue line is a possible new downtrend in the works and it is drawn off of the new pivot lower high. I also believe that the level $1082 needs to be held this week. If $1082 doesn’t hold, we will also have a new lower pivot low in the making. That’s not good.

The potential buy signal on the International Daily failed. Price also created the 3rd lower pivot high which could really mean some bad stuff. Normally after a pivot high is created, price pulls back a minimum of 7-10 days, so I think we are likely heading lower for a bit more. Also based on what I can see on the weekly chart currently, I think by next Friday, a sell signal will be fired on the weekly chart. If that happens, all 3 charts will be a sell. Not a good sign.

    Bonds daily are now flirting with a buy signal. It would not surprise me if the S&P 500, Small Cap, and International pull back more next week, bonds daily will fire a buy. Right now we just sit and watch.

Conclusion: Currently the markets are under a lot of stress. It could snap in either direction very quickly and snap hard. Nothing to me at this moment in time looks appealing. I almost wish I was in the G. 5 more trading days left in July and monthly moves will be on the table again. What happens is an unknown, but whatever happens, I will wait for those signals.