Charts for the TSP as of the closing 9/25/15

It was another very ugly week. But what struck me the most odd is that the S&P 500 seem to give everyone hope until the last 2 hours before the close Friday. At that point the selling started and ripped into the close. The Small Cap is where the trouble is brewing.

Last week I showed you the last pivot lows that should hold. If they do not, prices could continue to fall lower looking for support. The S&P did hold above this week, but it came back down into that breakout range. So now you have to think the breakout we saw two weeks ago is busted and the likely hood of lower prices rises. It will be interesting to see what happens next week. Currently futures for tomorrow morning at slightly down 6.75 points. Means nothing at the moment.

This is where the true market condition could be screaming, lookout. The last pivot low broke down Wednesday. Just a day later the second pivot low was under attack and Friday we closed just slightly below it. If we open even lower Monday morning, watch that last lower pivot low. That level is $985. If we close below that anytime next week, it could be on for another flush lower for stocks.

The International Index did break below the last pivot low, test the bottom pivot low, but bounced off it. That’s good that we did, but watch it carefully next week. A close $56.51 could spell double trouble for even out markets.

Bonds are just grinding sideways. I think whatever happens here depends on the Fed’s and if they finally start raising interest rates. I think Bonds will also suffer if that happens.

Conclusions: I think we are in a wait and see mode. I would not want to bet here that the markets are going to rally and make me a ton of money. I think the risk is to high looking at the charts. Another note here is that September ends Wednesday the 30th and really do not see any changes coming for us. A rally in Bonds in 3 days could fire a buy signal with a half of 1 percent move. So it would not take much. About a .60 move up. As far as the S&P goes, we would need a 4.5% by Wednesday close. Small Cap – 5.5% move and the International a 9% move. I just do not see 3 of indexes firing a buy.

Stay safe.