TSP charts as of 10/16/15 – S&P 500 is still on it’s own

Watching the price action the last couple of weeks is encouraging. Maybe soon things will get back to normal and all this chop will end. Last week we got a new higher pivot low. We also got our first closing price above the current monthly moving average. The 50 day moving average is rising, price is above the 50 day moving average, and little things like implied volatility is falling.  It will also be good to see the short term downtrend line broken and it appears that it will happen next week. So what is my concern? The S&P appears to be making all this progress by itself? What does that mean? Let’s look at our other indexes.

The Small Cap is just not following the lead of the S&P 500. The trend still looks like a downward trend and we are still making lower highs. Maybe this coming week things will turn to the upside but it needs to follow soon. This divergence could mean that the recent upturn in the market is just a mask for lower prices soon. You could take the other side and say that the S&P 500 is leading and prices will soon explode to the upside. Either way, it is a bit confusing and concerning.

The International that looked really strong a couple of weeks in a row, stalled. No progress made this week. I was hoping that the downtrend line 1 would be taken out, but it wasn’t. We are above the 50 day ma, but it just doesn’t look convinced that it wants to go up. Next week should be more telling on direction.

 

Bonds just slowly moving along. Had a nice little pop up in prices this week only to stall as soon as price hit the downtrend line. The squeeze is on. The wedge is getting tighter and tighter and eventually there will be a break. Price is above the 50 day ma and the 50 day is rising. Still, the overall trend is still down based on the red down trend line.

A bonus chart is the Dow Jones 30 that all news channels follow, but I do not. The overall trend is still down. So, looking at just these indexes, the S&P 500 is almost running on its own. What does that mean? Is it leading? Does it mean the overall market is still in trouble? Not sure and I do not see anything at the moment that is giving me a clue which way we are heading.