Excellent week for stocks almost across the board. Most indexes were up 2.3% to 4.7%. We had two more indexes fire and confirm buys on the daily charts. They would be the C-fund and I-fund. F-fund has been a daily buy for awhile now. The only fund we have left that hasn’t fired is the S-fund. I still have my concerns about the C-fund, and the other funds still have things that need to be resolved. So let’s move to the charts.
First up is the S&P 500 which our C-fund mirrors. The positives here is that the 50 day moving average has turned up. We fired buy 1, 2, and confirmed the daily buy signal this week, so things could be changing. You can even see that price is very close to the current monthly level now if you look for the purple line. What I do not like here is the sloppy structure. The rapid rollover and the pivot lows and highs have no trend. Next week should be a telling here because as of Friday we closed right on the last rejection level. If we go up from here that would begin the higher highs for pivots and structure would begin to return.
There is also a secondary positive and that is volatility is returning to normal. Low volatility should help force prices higher also. You can see volatility on a chart that I will show you below.
The International index also fired a buy 1, 2, and confirmed. So our I-fund is a daily buy. I really do prefer the structure here more so than I do the S&P 500. At least here you can draw trend lines off the lower pivot highs and you can then get a sense of a trend change once those pivots break the other way. So even though we have a very early buy signal here on the daily, I will not feel comfortable until at least that first red down trend is broken. That’s a very short term down trend line and the primary can be seen even higher than that. But, we have structure. We can see change in patterns and trends when we have structure. So all we now is a few higher pivot highs and few higher pivot lows and we will be good to go.
Bonds are still a daily buy from a awhile back. I do not remember the actual date. We are getting close again to firing sell signals.I do like the structure here and it looks to me that bonds winding up tighter and tighter and will soon surge in one direction or the other very soon. I still would like to see bonds finally break the long term down trend line and start marching uphill. We watch or stay in if you are in.
Last we have the Small Cap daily which has not completely followed the C and I funds. We got buy 1, but we are still waiting for buy 2 and confirmation. We are very very close as of Friday. Price closed just below the 50 day ma. Structure here is about the best of all the indexes in that it has been stepping down just like a set of steps. It is almost to perfect. When or if the S-fund breaks up and fires a buy, the down trend line will likely break at the same time. I prefer that type of breakout over what the bonds and international indexes are doing at the moment. The C has no structure.
So in conclusion, with the C and I firing buys and the F already being a buy, maybe things are starting to turn. Weekly charts are still a work in process and the monthly’s are to. Next week should be the tell if the recent surge in prices are real or not because we have returned to the last rejection spot. So, it does make me sad I missed the surge up in prices but I also didn’t lose a penny being in the G-fund. I’ll continue to watch and be patient.
Have a great weekend.
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